Recent official forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with Korea Meteorological Administration data, indicate mostly sunny conditions and light easterly winds over the Seoul-Incheon region on September 22, supporting a daily maximum near 28°C. This aligns with the market's leading 53% implied probability for exactly 28°C, as persistent high-pressure influence maintains stable subsidence and minimal cloud cover, limiting both upward spikes from daytime heating and cooling from advection. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–29°C, with only low odds assigned to outliers like 26°C or 30°C+ due to the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture. Updated short-range runs over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus without notable shifts, consistent with typical late-September climatology under blocking patterns.