Recent forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Bureau highlight persistent subtropical high pressure sustaining heat, with regional maxima potentially reaching 39°C through August 25, though afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms—especially mid-to-heavy rain in central and southeastern areas—introduce cooling via reduced solar insolation and evaporative effects. Model guidance varies, with some ensembles projecting peaks near 37–38°C under partly cloudy skies and others indicating 34–36°C if cloud cover thickens earlier, consistent with the market's tight clustering around 35–37°C. Recent days have seen observed highs of 37–38.8°C amid similar setups, but the timing and intensity of convection on the 25th remain the key variables that could differentiate outcomes at the official Jiangbei station. Updated runs from GFS, ECMWF, and local agencies ahead of resolution will likely refine trader positioning.