Recent official and ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen on August 25 highlight scattered thundershowers and persistent cloud cover that will limit peak insolation and cap daytime heating near 31–32°C. In the Pearl River Delta’s late-summer regime, the western Pacific subtropical high typically supports 32–34°C maxima, yet increased boundary-layer moisture and convective activity—driven by sea-breeze convergence and weak steering flow—enhance evaporative cooling and reduce solar input. Small differences in shower timing, cloud optical depth, and low-level wind speed explain the tight 31 °C versus 32 °C market split; stronger or earlier convection favors the lower outcome while clearer breaks push toward 32 °C. Updated model runs and local observations through the 24th will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.