Mexico City's high elevation of approximately 2,240 meters moderates daytime highs during the August rainy season, when frequent afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover typically cap temperatures near the 24°C historical average. Current forecasts indicate modest warming potential from clearer morning skies or delayed convection, supporting the market's tight clustering around 25–26°C as the most probable outcomes. Differentiating these hinges on precise factors such as solar insolation under variable humidity, the exact timing and intensity of convective rainfall, and any short-term shifts in steering patterns or moisture influx from the Pacific or Gulf, with official model updates from agencies like Mexico's SMN expected to refine probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.