Recent model runs from major forecasting centers show Moscow temperatures on July 21 likely peaking near 22–24 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak high-pressure ridging over European Russia. These conditions, typical for mid-July under neutral ENSO influence, allow daytime heating without strong advection of warmer air masses. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C bins because small shifts in forecast timing or local urban heat-island effects can easily move the daily maximum across those thresholds, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range due to limited potential for either rapid warming or significant cooling in the current synoptic pattern. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System will likely refine the outlook before resolution.