Latest European model runs and DWD guidance point to a warm, moderately unstable air mass over southern Germany, with forecast highs for Munich on June 13 centered on 24–25 °C. Ensemble spreads show the 25 °C outcome favored because daytime heating should peak near that level before scattered showers and increasing cloud cover limit further rise, while 26 °C remains viable if breaks allow stronger insolation. Lower outcomes gain traction if thundery activity arrives earlier or persistent stratus suppresses the maximum. These short-range probabilities align closely with historical June variability around the 22–23 °C climatological mean, leaving the market sensitive to the next 24–48 hours of model updates.