**Numerical weather prediction ensembles from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models currently converge on a maximum temperature of 24–25°C for Seoul on June 12, producing the tight market split between those two outcomes.** Early June climatology features daytime highs averaging near 25–27°C under transitional spring-to-summer flow, with modest diurnal ranges driven by increasing solar insolation and variable cloud cover. Subtle differences in forecast guidance arise from uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, low-level wind direction, and any thin mid-level cloud that could cap afternoon heating by 1°C. No strong frontal systems or monsoon surges are expected in the next 24–48 hours, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around the observed consensus range while leaving room for minor model adjustments before resolution.