Recent trader positioning in the Japan Q2 2026 GDP market, with the 0.0–0.8% annualized QoQ range holding a 48.5% implied probability, reflects expectations of moderation following the solid 1.8–2.1% print in Q1. Key factors include elevated Bank of Japan policy rates weighing on business investment and residential construction, alongside softening external demand and the impact of prior yen movements on import costs. A just-released JCER survey of 37 forecasters revised the Q2 estimate upward to 1.67%, aligning with the 1.6–2.4% bin (26.6% odds) and highlighting resilient private consumption supported by wage growth. Markets continue to monitor incoming monthly indicators ahead of the official preliminary release, with outcomes sensitive to revisions in net exports and capital spending data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0.0%–0.8% 47%
1.6%–2.4% 30.6%
0.8%–1.6% 21%
2.4%–3.2% 2.9%
$44,274 Объем
$44,274 Объем
17 авг. 2026 г.
<-2.4%
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
6%
0.0%–0.8%
47%
0.8%–1.6%
21%
1.6%–2.4%
27%
2.4%–3.2%
3%
3.2%–4.0%
1%
4.0%+
<1%
0.0%–0.8% 47%
1.6%–2.4% 30.6%
0.8%–1.6% 21%
2.4%–3.2% 2.9%
$44,274 Объем
$44,274 Объем
17 авг. 2026 г.
<-2.4%
$1,598 Объем
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,762 Объем
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$2,528 Объем
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,105 Объем
6%
0.0%–0.8%
$15,720 Объем
47%
0.8%–1.6%
$12,966 Объем
21%
1.6%–2.4%
$1,503 Объем
27%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,660 Объем
3%
3.2%–4.0%
$893 Объем
1%
4.0%+
$539 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent trader positioning in the Japan Q2 2026 GDP market, with the 0.0–0.8% annualized QoQ range holding a 48.5% implied probability, reflects expectations of moderation following the solid 1.8–2.1% print in Q1. Key factors include elevated Bank of Japan policy rates weighing on business investment and residential construction, alongside softening external demand and the impact of prior yen movements on import costs. A just-released JCER survey of 37 forecasters revised the Q2 estimate upward to 1.67%, aligning with the 1.6–2.4% bin (26.6% odds) and highlighting resilient private consumption supported by wage growth. Markets continue to monitor incoming monthly indicators ahead of the official preliminary release, with outcomes sensitive to revisions in net exports and capital spending data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Открытие рынка: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Объем
$44,274Дата окончания
17 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent trader positioning in the Japan Q2 2026 GDP market, with the 0.0–0.8% annualized QoQ range holding a 48.5% implied probability, reflects expectations of moderation following the solid 1.8–2.1% print in Q1. Key factors include elevated Bank of Japan policy rates weighing on business investment and residential construction, alongside softening external demand and the impact of prior yen movements on import costs. A just-released JCER survey of 37 forecasters revised the Q2 estimate upward to 1.67%, aligning with the 1.6–2.4% bin (26.6% odds) and highlighting resilient private consumption supported by wage growth. Markets continue to monitor incoming monthly indicators ahead of the official preliminary release, with outcomes sensitive to revisions in net exports and capital spending data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Объем
$44,274Дата окончания
17 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent trader positioning in the Japan Q2 2026 GDP market, with the 0.0–0.8% annualized QoQ range holding a 48.5% implied probability, reflects expectations of moderation following the solid 1.8–2.1% print in Q1. Key factors include elevated Bank of Japan policy rates weighing on business investment and residential construction, alongside softening external demand and the impact of prior yen movements on import costs. A just-released JCER survey of 37 forecasters revised the Q2 estimate upward to 1.67%, aligning with the 1.6–2.4% bin (26.6% odds) and highlighting resilient private consumption supported by wage growth. Markets continue to monitor incoming monthly indicators ahead of the official preliminary release, with outcomes sensitive to revisions in net exports and capital spending data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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