Current forecasts from numerical weather models and official guidance indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C for Madrid on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure pattern that aligns with the long-term climatological average low of 15.5°C. This consensus underpins the market-implied 95% probability for 15°C, as traders weigh real-time observational data and ensemble runs showing limited variability overnight. Scenarios that could shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover or a stronger nocturnal wind shift raising the minimum above 16°C, or enhanced cooling from drier air masses pushing it to 14°C or lower before dawn.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мадриде 15 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мадриде 15 сентября?
15°C 99.5%
12°C или ниже 1.0%
13°C 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
$1,480 Объем
$1,480 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
12°C или ниже
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Да
16°C
Нет
17°C
Нет
18°C
Нет
19°C
Нет
20°C
Нет
21°C
Нет
22°C или выше
Нет
15°C 99.5%
12°C или ниже 1.0%
13°C 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
$1,480 Объем
$1,480 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
12°C или ниже
$10 Объем
Нет
13°C
$10 Объем
Нет
14°C
$134 Объем
Нет
15°C
$269 Объем
Да
16°C
$269 Объем
Нет
17°C
$256 Объем
Нет
18°C
$231 Объем
Нет
19°C
$180 Объем
Нет
20°C
$80 Объем
Нет
21°C
$10 Объем
Нет
22°C или выше
$32 Объем
Нет
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from numerical weather models and official guidance indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C for Madrid on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure pattern that aligns with the long-term climatological average low of 15.5°C. This consensus underpins the market-implied 95% probability for 15°C, as traders weigh real-time observational data and ensemble runs showing limited variability overnight. Scenarios that could shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover or a stronger nocturnal wind shift raising the minimum above 16°C, or enhanced cooling from drier air masses pushing it to 14°C or lower before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Объем
$1,480Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from numerical weather models and official guidance indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C for Madrid on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure pattern that aligns with the long-term climatological average low of 15.5°C. This consensus underpins the market-implied 95% probability for 15°C, as traders weigh real-time observational data and ensemble runs showing limited variability overnight. Scenarios that could shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover or a stronger nocturnal wind shift raising the minimum above 16°C, or enhanced cooling from drier air masses pushing it to 14°C or lower before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,480Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Current forecasts from numerical weather models and official guidance indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C for Madrid on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure pattern that aligns with the long-term climatological average low of 15.5°C. This consensus underpins the market-implied 95% probability for 15°C, as traders weigh real-time observational data and ensemble runs showing limited variability overnight. Scenarios that could shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover or a stronger nocturnal wind shift raising the minimum above 16°C, or enhanced cooling from drier air masses pushing it to 14°C or lower before dawn.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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