Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a likely minimum temperature near 23–24°C in Shanghai on September 14, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Mid-September marks the seasonal transition from the East Asian summer monsoon, with weakening southerly flow allowing clearer skies and radiational cooling overnight while daytime highs remain in the upper 20s. Current surface observations and short-range guidance show no strong frontal systems or typhoon influences that would sharply alter the diurnal range, though model spread in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat effects introduces modest uncertainty around the exact low. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF are expected within the next 24–48 hours and could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.