Current forecasts from European meteorological models and local Polish observations indicate a nighttime minimum near 16°C in Warsaw on August 21, aligning with the 96% market-implied probability for that outcome. This consensus reflects stable atmospheric conditions with moderate southerly flow, typical late-summer humidity, and no strong cold-air advection, consistent with climatological baselines where August overnight lows average 12–15°C. Traders price lower thresholds (15°C at 27%) only modestly because model runs show limited downside risk from cloud cover or light showers. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected frontal passage or rapid radiational cooling under clearer skies, though official station data through the early morning window currently support the leading resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Варшаве 21 августа?
Самая низкая температура в Варшаве 21 августа?
16°C 98%
15°C 6%
13°C 2%
14°C 2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 авг. 2026 г.
12°C или ниже
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
98%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C или выше
<1%
16°C 98%
15°C 6%
13°C 2%
14°C 2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 авг. 2026 г.
12°C или ниже
$721 Объем
1%
13°C
$119 Объем
2%
14°C
$150 Объем
2%
15°C
$115 Объем
6%
16°C
$326 Объем
98%
17°C
$1,970 Объем
<1%
18°C
$153 Объем
<1%
19°C
$129 Объем
<1%
20°C
$129 Объем
<1%
21°C
$129 Объем
<1%
22°C или выше
$160 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from European meteorological models and local Polish observations indicate a nighttime minimum near 16°C in Warsaw on August 21, aligning with the 96% market-implied probability for that outcome. This consensus reflects stable atmospheric conditions with moderate southerly flow, typical late-summer humidity, and no strong cold-air advection, consistent with climatological baselines where August overnight lows average 12–15°C. Traders price lower thresholds (15°C at 27%) only modestly because model runs show limited downside risk from cloud cover or light showers. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected frontal passage or rapid radiational cooling under clearer skies, though official station data through the early morning window currently support the leading resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Объем
$4,100Дата окончания
21 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from European meteorological models and local Polish observations indicate a nighttime minimum near 16°C in Warsaw on August 21, aligning with the 96% market-implied probability for that outcome. This consensus reflects stable atmospheric conditions with moderate southerly flow, typical late-summer humidity, and no strong cold-air advection, consistent with climatological baselines where August overnight lows average 12–15°C. Traders price lower thresholds (15°C at 27%) only modestly because model runs show limited downside risk from cloud cover or light showers. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected frontal passage or rapid radiational cooling under clearer skies, though official station data through the early morning window currently support the leading resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$4,100Дата окончания
21 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from European meteorological models and local Polish observations indicate a nighttime minimum near 16°C in Warsaw on August 21, aligning with the 96% market-implied probability for that outcome. This consensus reflects stable atmospheric conditions with moderate southerly flow, typical late-summer humidity, and no strong cold-air advection, consistent with climatological baselines where August overnight lows average 12–15°C. Traders price lower thresholds (15°C at 27%) only modestly because model runs show limited downside risk from cloud cover or light showers. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected frontal passage or rapid radiational cooling under clearer skies, though official station data through the early morning window currently support the leading resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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