Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 22 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered showers, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where average lows hover near 13 °C, though higher dew points and light winds could suppress the drop toward 12 °C or allow brief clearing that favors 14–15 °C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain modest, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any precipitation and the extent of nocturnal cloud cover in the final model runs.