Forecast models from MetService, Met Office, and BBC indicate an incoming cold polar air mass this weekend will drive Wellington's overnight minimum on August 23 toward 6–8°C under strengthening southerly flow after initial nor’west winds. This aligns with NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average August temperatures and recent polar outbreaks that produced similar lows earlier in the month. Trader consensus clusters around 10–12°C likely because of uncertainty in the exact timing of the wind shift and potential for lingering milder air or reduced radiative cooling under variable cloud. Key upcoming factors include the next model runs and wind observations, which will clarify whether the minimum falls closer to the colder end of guidance or stays elevated.