Anthropic’s rapid Opus iteration and specialized variants like Mythos 5 and Fable 5 have driven recent trader sentiment around the next Claude Opus model’s Humanity’s Last Exam performance. The May 2026 release of Opus 4.8 delivered measurable gains on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, reaching roughly 46–58% accuracy depending on tool use, while Mythos 5 now leads the leaderboard near 65%. Intense competition with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini series keeps the focus on whether the next dedicated Opus release will reclaim or extend the frontier position through improved reasoning and decontamination techniques. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Opus version announcement, developer conference benchmarks, or updates to HLE scoring protocols that could shift market-implied odds on debut timing and capability thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСледующий Клод Опус: Дебют последнего экзамена человечества?
Следующий Клод Опус: Дебют последнего экзамена человечества?
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
35%+
82%
40%+
69%
45%+
59%
50%+
35%
55%+
25%
$1,403 Объем
35%+
$64 Объем
82%
40%+
$86 Объем
69%
45%+
$267 Объем
59%
50%+
$344 Объем
35%
55%+
$642 Объем
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid Opus iteration and specialized variants like Mythos 5 and Fable 5 have driven recent trader sentiment around the next Claude Opus model’s Humanity’s Last Exam performance. The May 2026 release of Opus 4.8 delivered measurable gains on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, reaching roughly 46–58% accuracy depending on tool use, while Mythos 5 now leads the leaderboard near 65%. Intense competition with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini series keeps the focus on whether the next dedicated Opus release will reclaim or extend the frontier position through improved reasoning and decontamination techniques. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Opus version announcement, developer conference benchmarks, or updates to HLE scoring protocols that could shift market-implied odds on debut timing and capability thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Объем
$1,403Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:36 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid Opus iteration and specialized variants like Mythos 5 and Fable 5 have driven recent trader sentiment around the next Claude Opus model’s Humanity’s Last Exam performance. The May 2026 release of Opus 4.8 delivered measurable gains on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, reaching roughly 46–58% accuracy depending on tool use, while Mythos 5 now leads the leaderboard near 65%. Intense competition with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini series keeps the focus on whether the next dedicated Opus release will reclaim or extend the frontier position through improved reasoning and decontamination techniques. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Opus version announcement, developer conference benchmarks, or updates to HLE scoring protocols that could shift market-implied odds on debut timing and capability thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$1,403Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:36 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s rapid Opus iteration and specialized variants like Mythos 5 and Fable 5 have driven recent trader sentiment around the next Claude Opus model’s Humanity’s Last Exam performance. The May 2026 release of Opus 4.8 delivered measurable gains on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, reaching roughly 46–58% accuracy depending on tool use, while Mythos 5 now leads the leaderboard near 65%. Intense competition with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini series keeps the focus on whether the next dedicated Opus release will reclaim or extend the frontier position through improved reasoning and decontamination techniques. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Opus version announcement, developer conference benchmarks, or updates to HLE scoring protocols that could shift market-implied odds on debut timing and capability thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Даст ли любая модель Anthropic Claude результат 55% или выше на Humanity’s Last Exam в 2026 году?
54%
Да
Будет ли наивысший балл, набранный на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, равен 60% или выше?
44%
Да
Достигнет ли максимальный балл, набранный моделью OpenAI на Последнем Экзамене Человечества в 2026 году, 55% или больше?
51%
Да
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