Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?
$1,060,218 Объем
22 авг. 2026 г.
22 августа
$222,406 Объем
98%
25 августа
$118,692 Объем
96%
31 августа
$306,837 Объем
88%
15 сентября
$135,668 Объем
75%
30 сентября
$247,072 Объем
65%
31 октября
$29,544 Объем
56%
$1,060,218 Объем
22 августа
$222,406 Объем
98%
25 августа
$118,692 Объем
96%
31 августа
$306,837 Объем
88%
15 сентября
$135,668 Объем
75%
30 сентября
$247,072 Объем
65%
31 октября
$29,544 Объем
56%
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.The June 17 Islamabad memorandum of understanding established a 60-day window for a US-Iran ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear talks that expired August 17 amid repeated violations by both sides and no extension or final accord. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of renewed direct military strikes since late July alongside persistent US naval blockade, fresh sanctions targeting Iranian proxies and oil networks on August 20, and stalled negotiations over Hormuz transit terms and Iran's nuclear program. Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman continue low-level channels, but core disputes on sanctions relief, inspections, and waterway control remain unresolved, leaving any continuation of de-escalation dependent on diplomatic progress before potential economic or military pressure escalates further.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
The June 17 Islamabad memorandum of understanding established a 60-day window for a US-Iran ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear talks that expired August 17 amid repeated violations by both sides and no extension or final accord. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of renewed direct military strikes since late July alongside persistent US naval blockade, fresh sanctions targeting Iranian proxies and oil networks on August 20, and stalled negotiations over Hormuz transit terms and Iran's nuclear program. Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman continue low-level channels, but core disputes on sanctions relief, inspections, and waterway control remain unresolved, leaving any continuation of de-escalation dependent on diplomatic progress before potential economic or military pressure escalates further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Aug 21 2026
Iranian Parliament Speaker vows to overcome US sanctions amid ongoing conflict
October 31 dips to 56%4%
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated on August 21 that Iran must plan to overcome the 'unjust sanctions' imposed by the US, reflecting Iran's resolve amid economic warfare. This rhetoric coincided with market confidence that the ceasefire would continue without qualifying US military strikes through October.
Aug 21 2026
China calls for political solution to US-Iran conflict amid sanctions and stalled talks
September 30 surges to 59%26%
On August 21, China urged all parties to pursue political and diplomatic solutions to the US-Iran conflict, criticizing sanctions and pressure. This international diplomatic stance supported market expectations that the ceasefire would hold without qualifying US military strikes through late August and September.
Aug 21 2026
Trump reiterates control over Strait of Hormuz, warns Iran
August 22 rises to 98%1%
President Trump reiterated claims of US military dominance over the Strait of Hormuz and destruction of Iranian military infrastructure, reinforcing a hardline stance but no qualifying US military strike on Iran was reported, sustaining market optimism for the ceasefire.
Aug 21 2026
US President Trump warns of new sanctions and military readiness against Iran
October 31 dips to 56%4%
Trump warned of 'tremendous' punishment on countries aiding Iran and emphasized US military readiness, maintaining pressure on Iran and signaling ongoing conflict risks despite ceasefire hopes.
Aug 21 2026
Egypt signals possible Iran-Oman agreement to revive US-Iran negotiations
September 30 surges to 58%25%
Egypt indicated that a potential Iran-Oman agreement could create conditions for Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations, raising hopes for ceasefire continuation and diplomatic resolution.
Aug 20 2026
US aircraft carrier arrives in Middle East amid rising tensions
August 31 surges to 79%26%
The arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Middle East signaled a military buildup and readiness to respond to Iranian actions, reinforcing US commitment to maintaining pressure and the ceasefire's fragility.
Aug 20 2026
US aircraft carrier USS George Washington conducts flight operations in Indian Ocean
August 31 surges to 81%28%
On August 20, the US Department of Defense released videos showing flight operations from the USS George Washington aircraft carrier transiting the Indian Ocean, signaling continued US military presence and readiness in the region amid stalled peace talks, but no qualifying strikes on Iran occurred.
Aug 20 2026
US Treasury Secretary announces toughest sanctions on Iran amid stalled talks
September 15 surges to 72%24%
On August 20, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the toughest sanctions in history on Iran, signaling a shift to economic pressure as military actions remained limited. This economic warfare approach contributed to market confidence that the ceasefire would continue without qualifying military strikes through September and October.
Aug 20 2026
US President Trump announces intensified economic pressure campaign on Iran
September 15 surges to 73%25%
Trump declared a major new campaign to target Iran's economy with sanctions, increasing non-military pressure amid stalled talks and ongoing conflict, affecting market perceptions of ceasefire durability.
Aug 20 2026
US intensifies pressure campaign on Iran; UAE cuts trade ties
August 25 rises to 95%4%
The US announced plans to intensify economic and military pressure on Iran, while the UAE prepared phased trade and financial restrictions, reflecting escalating non-military pressure but no qualifying US military strike on Iran occurred, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire.
Aug 20 2026
US military flight operations continue amid Iran conflict
August 25 rises to 95%2%
The US Department of Defense released videos showing ongoing flight operations from the USS George Washington aircraft carrier, signaling sustained US military presence and readiness in the region without direct qualifying strikes on Iran, maintaining market confidence in the ceasefire.
Aug 19 2026
US launches fresh strikes targeting Iran amid ceasefire threats
August 25 surges to 89%28%
The US conducted new airstrikes against Iranian targets following Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying hostilities and threatening the fragile ceasefire agreement signed in June.
Aug 19 2026
US launches fresh airstrikes on Iran amid ceasefire threats
August 25 surges to 91%30%
The US conducted new airstrikes targeting Iran, escalating military tensions and threatening the fragile ceasefire, but no direct qualifying strike impacting Iran's territory was confirmed, supporting continued market confidence in the ceasefire holding through near-term dates.
Aug 18 2026
Trump says no talks underway with Iran, UAE detects missile threat
August 22 surges to 93%21%
President Trump stated no talks were underway with Iran and threatened military action against Oman if it obstructed US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and casting doubt on ceasefire durability.
Aug 18 2026
US President Trump declares no talks underway with Iran, UAE detects missile threat
August 22 surges to 94%22%
On August 18, President Trump stated no talks were underway or scheduled with Iran, while the UAE reported detecting ballistic missile threats from Iran. This heightened tensions but did not lead to qualifying US military strikes, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through August 22 and 25.
Aug 18 2026
Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Strait of Hormuz talks
August 22 rises to 97%3%
In an interview, Trump threatened military strikes against Oman if it interfered with US efforts related to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran, signaling a hardline stance and raising regional tensions, but no qualifying US military strike on Iran occurred.
Aug 18 2026
Trump states no talks underway with Iran, UAE detects missile threat
August 22 rises to 97%3%
President Trump publicly declared that no talks with Iran are underway or scheduled, while the UAE accused Iran of firing ballistic missiles at its territory, escalating regional tensions. Iran denied the missile attack accusations, contributing to uncertainty but no direct US military action against Iran occurred.
Aug 18 2026
60-day US-Iran ceasefire expires without breakthrough, tensions rise
August 25 surges to 91%30%
The 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran expired on August 17 without progress on peace talks, leading to increased uncertainty. However, no qualifying US military strikes occurred immediately after expiration, which contributed to rising market confidence in the ceasefire lasting through August 25 and beyond.
Aug 18 2026
US launches strikes on around 90 Iranian military targets amid stalled talks
August 22 surges to 94%22%
CENTCOM announced US strikes on approximately 90 military targets in Iran on August 18, aiming to weaken Iran's capacity to threaten navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these strikes, no qualifying military action directly impacting Iran's terrestrial territory was confirmed, maintaining market optimism for the ceasefire.
Aug 18 2026
Iran signals shift to fully offensive military posture amid stalled negotiations
August 22 rises to 97%3%
A senior Iranian official announced a shift to a fully offensive military posture due to stalled efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war, increasing the risk of escalation but no US qualifying military strike on Iran was reported.
Aug 18 2026
Iran threatens new offensive as US rules out extending ceasefire
August 22 surges to 93%21%
A senior Iranian official announced Iran would shift to a fully offensive military posture due to stalled negotiations, while the US ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire, increasing tensions and uncertainty about ceasefire continuation.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.The June 17 Islamabad memorandum of understanding established a 60-day window for a US-Iran ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear talks that expired August 17 amid repeated violations by both sides and no extension or final accord. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of renewed direct military strikes since late July alongside persistent US naval blockade, fresh sanctions targeting Iranian proxies and oil networks on August 20, and stalled negotiations over Hormuz transit terms and Iran's nuclear program. Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman continue low-level channels, but core disputes on sanctions relief, inspections, and waterway control remain unresolved, leaving any continuation of de-escalation dependent on diplomatic progress before potential economic or military pressure escalates further.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
The June 17 Islamabad memorandum of understanding established a 60-day window for a US-Iran ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear talks that expired August 17 amid repeated violations by both sides and no extension or final accord. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of renewed direct military strikes since late July alongside persistent US naval blockade, fresh sanctions targeting Iranian proxies and oil networks on August 20, and stalled negotiations over Hormuz transit terms and Iran's nuclear program. Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman continue low-level channels, but core disputes on sanctions relief, inspections, and waterway control remain unresolved, leaving any continuation of de-escalation dependent on diplomatic progress before potential economic or military pressure escalates further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Aug 21 2026
Iranian Parliament Speaker vows to overcome US sanctions amid ongoing conflict
October 31 dips to 56%4%
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated on August 21 that Iran must plan to overcome the 'unjust sanctions' imposed by the US, reflecting Iran's resolve amid economic warfare. This rhetoric coincided with market confidence that the ceasefire would continue without qualifying US military strikes through October.
Aug 21 2026
China calls for political solution to US-Iran conflict amid sanctions and stalled talks
September 30 surges to 59%26%
On August 21, China urged all parties to pursue political and diplomatic solutions to the US-Iran conflict, criticizing sanctions and pressure. This international diplomatic stance supported market expectations that the ceasefire would hold without qualifying US military strikes through late August and September.
Aug 21 2026
Trump reiterates control over Strait of Hormuz, warns Iran
August 22 rises to 98%1%
President Trump reiterated claims of US military dominance over the Strait of Hormuz and destruction of Iranian military infrastructure, reinforcing a hardline stance but no qualifying US military strike on Iran was reported, sustaining market optimism for the ceasefire.
Aug 21 2026
US President Trump warns of new sanctions and military readiness against Iran
October 31 dips to 56%4%
Trump warned of 'tremendous' punishment on countries aiding Iran and emphasized US military readiness, maintaining pressure on Iran and signaling ongoing conflict risks despite ceasefire hopes.
Aug 21 2026
Egypt signals possible Iran-Oman agreement to revive US-Iran negotiations
September 30 surges to 58%25%
Egypt indicated that a potential Iran-Oman agreement could create conditions for Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations, raising hopes for ceasefire continuation and diplomatic resolution.
Aug 20 2026
US aircraft carrier arrives in Middle East amid rising tensions
August 31 surges to 79%26%
The arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Middle East signaled a military buildup and readiness to respond to Iranian actions, reinforcing US commitment to maintaining pressure and the ceasefire's fragility.
Aug 20 2026
US aircraft carrier USS George Washington conducts flight operations in Indian Ocean
August 31 surges to 81%28%
On August 20, the US Department of Defense released videos showing flight operations from the USS George Washington aircraft carrier transiting the Indian Ocean, signaling continued US military presence and readiness in the region amid stalled peace talks, but no qualifying strikes on Iran occurred.
Aug 20 2026
US Treasury Secretary announces toughest sanctions on Iran amid stalled talks
September 15 surges to 72%24%
On August 20, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the toughest sanctions in history on Iran, signaling a shift to economic pressure as military actions remained limited. This economic warfare approach contributed to market confidence that the ceasefire would continue without qualifying military strikes through September and October.
Aug 20 2026
US President Trump announces intensified economic pressure campaign on Iran
September 15 surges to 73%25%
Trump declared a major new campaign to target Iran's economy with sanctions, increasing non-military pressure amid stalled talks and ongoing conflict, affecting market perceptions of ceasefire durability.
Aug 20 2026
US intensifies pressure campaign on Iran; UAE cuts trade ties
August 25 rises to 95%4%
The US announced plans to intensify economic and military pressure on Iran, while the UAE prepared phased trade and financial restrictions, reflecting escalating non-military pressure but no qualifying US military strike on Iran occurred, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire.
Aug 20 2026
US military flight operations continue amid Iran conflict
August 25 rises to 95%2%
The US Department of Defense released videos showing ongoing flight operations from the USS George Washington aircraft carrier, signaling sustained US military presence and readiness in the region without direct qualifying strikes on Iran, maintaining market confidence in the ceasefire.
Aug 19 2026
US launches fresh strikes targeting Iran amid ceasefire threats
August 25 surges to 89%28%
The US conducted new airstrikes against Iranian targets following Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying hostilities and threatening the fragile ceasefire agreement signed in June.
Aug 19 2026
US launches fresh airstrikes on Iran amid ceasefire threats
August 25 surges to 91%30%
The US conducted new airstrikes targeting Iran, escalating military tensions and threatening the fragile ceasefire, but no direct qualifying strike impacting Iran's territory was confirmed, supporting continued market confidence in the ceasefire holding through near-term dates.
Aug 18 2026
Trump says no talks underway with Iran, UAE detects missile threat
August 22 surges to 93%21%
President Trump stated no talks were underway with Iran and threatened military action against Oman if it obstructed US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and casting doubt on ceasefire durability.
Aug 18 2026
US President Trump declares no talks underway with Iran, UAE detects missile threat
August 22 surges to 94%22%
On August 18, President Trump stated no talks were underway or scheduled with Iran, while the UAE reported detecting ballistic missile threats from Iran. This heightened tensions but did not lead to qualifying US military strikes, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through August 22 and 25.
Aug 18 2026
Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Strait of Hormuz talks
August 22 rises to 97%3%
In an interview, Trump threatened military strikes against Oman if it interfered with US efforts related to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran, signaling a hardline stance and raising regional tensions, but no qualifying US military strike on Iran occurred.
Aug 18 2026
Trump states no talks underway with Iran, UAE detects missile threat
August 22 rises to 97%3%
President Trump publicly declared that no talks with Iran are underway or scheduled, while the UAE accused Iran of firing ballistic missiles at its territory, escalating regional tensions. Iran denied the missile attack accusations, contributing to uncertainty but no direct US military action against Iran occurred.
Aug 18 2026
60-day US-Iran ceasefire expires without breakthrough, tensions rise
August 25 surges to 91%30%
The 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran expired on August 17 without progress on peace talks, leading to increased uncertainty. However, no qualifying US military strikes occurred immediately after expiration, which contributed to rising market confidence in the ceasefire lasting through August 25 and beyond.
Aug 18 2026
US launches strikes on around 90 Iranian military targets amid stalled talks
August 22 surges to 94%22%
CENTCOM announced US strikes on approximately 90 military targets in Iran on August 18, aiming to weaken Iran's capacity to threaten navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these strikes, no qualifying military action directly impacting Iran's terrestrial territory was confirmed, maintaining market optimism for the ceasefire.
Aug 18 2026
Iran signals shift to fully offensive military posture amid stalled negotiations
August 22 rises to 97%3%
A senior Iranian official announced a shift to a fully offensive military posture due to stalled efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war, increasing the risk of escalation but no US qualifying military strike on Iran was reported.
Aug 18 2026
Iran threatens new offensive as US rules out extending ceasefire
August 22 surges to 93%21%
A senior Iranian official announced Iran would shift to a fully offensive military posture due to stalled negotiations, while the US ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire, increasing tensions and uncertainty about ceasefire continuation.
«Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «22 августа» с 98%, за ним следует «25 августа» с 96%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 98¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 98%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.1 million с момента запуска рынка Aug 18, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?» — «22 августа» с 98%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 98%. Следующий ближайший исход — «25 августа» с 96%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $1.1 million по “Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 98¢ для «22 августа» на рынке «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «22 августа» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 98%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 98¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 2¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?» запланирован к разрешению примерно Sep 30, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?» имеет активное сообщество из 21 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Прекращение огня США против Ирана продолжается через...?». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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