Recent preliminary CDC data showing sharp year-over-year drops in January and February 2026 births—down 4.8% and 2.15% respectively—has driven strong trader consensus toward "No," reflecting the U.S. general fertility rate's continued slide from the Q4 2025 benchmark of 53.3. This aligns with the record-low annual rate of 53.1 reported for 2025, part of a two-decade decline tied to delayed childbearing, economic pressures, and below-replacement patterns persisting since 2007. With no reversal signals in early monthly figures, traders view an uptick in Q1 as unlikely, awaiting the next CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for final confirmation. The market's 80% implied probability for "No" captures these sustained demographic headwinds and lack of positive momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоUS fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent preliminary CDC data showing sharp year-over-year drops in January and February 2026 births—down 4.8% and 2.15% respectively—has driven strong trader consensus toward "No," reflecting the U.S. general fertility rate's continued slide from the Q4 2025 benchmark of 53.3. This aligns with the record-low annual rate of 53.1 reported for 2025, part of a two-decade decline tied to delayed childbearing, economic pressures, and below-replacement patterns persisting since 2007. With no reversal signals in early monthly figures, traders view an uptick in Q1 as unlikely, awaiting the next CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for final confirmation. The market's 80% implied probability for "No" captures these sustained demographic headwinds and lack of positive momentum.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Объем
$72Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent preliminary CDC data showing sharp year-over-year drops in January and February 2026 births—down 4.8% and 2.15% respectively—has driven strong trader consensus toward "No," reflecting the U.S. general fertility rate's continued slide from the Q4 2025 benchmark of 53.3. This aligns with the record-low annual rate of 53.1 reported for 2025, part of a two-decade decline tied to delayed childbearing, economic pressures, and below-replacement patterns persisting since 2007. With no reversal signals in early monthly figures, traders view an uptick in Q1 as unlikely, awaiting the next CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for final confirmation. The market's 80% implied probability for "No" captures these sustained demographic headwinds and lack of positive momentum.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Объем
$72Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent preliminary CDC data showing sharp year-over-year drops in January and February 2026 births—down 4.8% and 2.15% respectively—has driven strong trader consensus toward "No," reflecting the U.S. general fertility rate's continued slide from the Q4 2025 benchmark of 53.3. This aligns with the record-low annual rate of 53.1 reported for 2025, part of a two-decade decline tied to delayed childbearing, economic pressures, and below-replacement patterns persisting since 2007. With no reversal signals in early monthly figures, traders view an uptick in Q1 as unlikely, awaiting the next CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for final confirmation. The market's 80% implied probability for "No" captures these sustained demographic headwinds and lack of positive momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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