Recent calls by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for pacing frontier AI development, backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, xAI’s Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis, have shaped trader views on the “full training pause” market. These statements follow targeted, short-term pauses—such as OpenAI’s two-week reinforcement learning halt in August and Anthropic’s similar restrictions after agent incidents—rather than comprehensive stops. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has rejected coordinated slowdowns, emphasizing individual lab incentives and citing its own multi-month delay of the Muse agent. Competitive pressures, antitrust risks around collaboration, and the absence of any lab announcing a full 2026 training suspension keep implied probabilities low, with resolution hinging on future safety incidents, regulatory actions, or leadership shifts before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакие лаборатории ИИ объявят о полной паузе в обучении в 2026 году?
Какие лаборатории ИИ объявят о полной паузе в обучении в 2026 году?
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
SpaceXAI
21%
Anthropic
15%
14%
OpenAI
14%
$27 Объем
SpaceXAI
$0 Объем
21%
Anthropic
$27 Объем
15%
$0 Объем
14%
OpenAI
$0 Объем
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause all training of AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full training pause means the company halts all training for its AI models, including pre-training, fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning, across the company. Pauses limited to particular models, training methods, training environments, or teams will not qualify. A full pause of any stated duration qualifies. Continued deployment or serving of existing models does not prevent a pause from qualifying.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that all training has been or will be paused. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. Statements that describe slowing development, pausing some training, or considering a pause will not qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent calls by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for pacing frontier AI development, backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, xAI’s Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis, have shaped trader views on the “full training pause” market. These statements follow targeted, short-term pauses—such as OpenAI’s two-week reinforcement learning halt in August and Anthropic’s similar restrictions after agent incidents—rather than comprehensive stops. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has rejected coordinated slowdowns, emphasizing individual lab incentives and citing its own multi-month delay of the Muse agent. Competitive pressures, antitrust risks around collaboration, and the absence of any lab announcing a full 2026 training suspension keep implied probabilities low, with resolution hinging on future safety incidents, regulatory actions, or leadership shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause all training of AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full training pause means the company halts all training for its AI models, including pre-training, fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning, across the company. Pauses limited to particular models, training methods, training environments, or teams will not qualify. A full pause of any stated duration qualifies. Continued deployment or serving of existing models does not prevent a pause from qualifying.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that all training has been or will be paused. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. Statements that describe slowing development, pausing some training, or considering a pause will not qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A full training pause means the company halts all training for its AI models, including pre-training, fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning, across the company. Pauses limited to particular models, training methods, training environments, or teams will not qualify. A full pause of any stated duration qualifies. Continued deployment or serving of existing models does not prevent a pause from qualifying.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that all training has been or will be paused. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. Statements that describe slowing development, pausing some training, or considering a pause will not qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 17, 2026, 3:54 PM ET
Объем
$27Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 3:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause all training of AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full training pause means the company halts all training for its AI models, including pre-training, fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning, across the company. Pauses limited to particular models, training methods, training environments, or teams will not qualify. A full pause of any stated duration qualifies. Continued deployment or serving of existing models does not prevent a pause from qualifying.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that all training has been or will be paused. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. Statements that describe slowing development, pausing some training, or considering a pause will not qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent calls by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for pacing frontier AI development, backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, xAI’s Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis, have shaped trader views on the “full training pause” market. These statements follow targeted, short-term pauses—such as OpenAI’s two-week reinforcement learning halt in August and Anthropic’s similar restrictions after agent incidents—rather than comprehensive stops. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has rejected coordinated slowdowns, emphasizing individual lab incentives and citing its own multi-month delay of the Muse agent. Competitive pressures, antitrust risks around collaboration, and the absence of any lab announcing a full 2026 training suspension keep implied probabilities low, with resolution hinging on future safety incidents, regulatory actions, or leadership shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause all training of AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full training pause means the company halts all training for its AI models, including pre-training, fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning, across the company. Pauses limited to particular models, training methods, training environments, or teams will not qualify. A full pause of any stated duration qualifies. Continued deployment or serving of existing models does not prevent a pause from qualifying.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that all training has been or will be paused. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. Statements that describe slowing development, pausing some training, or considering a pause will not qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A full training pause means the company halts all training for its AI models, including pre-training, fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning, across the company. Pauses limited to particular models, training methods, training environments, or teams will not qualify. A full pause of any stated duration qualifies. Continued deployment or serving of existing models does not prevent a pause from qualifying.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that all training has been or will be paused. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. Statements that describe slowing development, pausing some training, or considering a pause will not qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$27Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 3:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent calls by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for pacing frontier AI development, backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, xAI’s Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis, have shaped trader views on the “full training pause” market. These statements follow targeted, short-term pauses—such as OpenAI’s two-week reinforcement learning halt in August and Anthropic’s similar restrictions after agent incidents—rather than comprehensive stops. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has rejected coordinated slowdowns, emphasizing individual lab incentives and citing its own multi-month delay of the Muse agent. Competitive pressures, antitrust risks around collaboration, and the absence of any lab announcing a full 2026 training suspension keep implied probabilities low, with resolution hinging on future safety incidents, regulatory actions, or leadership shifts before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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