Diplomatic momentum from U.S. mediation efforts under President Trump shapes trader views on high-profile visits to Ukraine by year-end. Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff completed their first Kyiv trip on September 6, 2026, after Moscow meetings to advance ceasefire talks, following repeated postponements tied to regional tensions. This has elevated expectations for follow-on visits by figures like Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, given Poland's frontline role and frequent bilateral coordination, while lowering odds for U.S. President Trump or Vice President JD Vance absent a breakthrough. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte face moderate probabilities tied to ongoing support coordination and scheduled summits, including the UN General Assembly. Persistent conflict dynamics, air defense constraints on travel, and the need for verifiable reporting continue to anchor probabilities around skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term diplomatic traffic.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWho will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
$500,395 Объем
Donald Tusk
77%
Ursula von der Leyen
36%
Friedrich Merz
43%
António Guterres
34%
Mark Rutte
42%
Mark Carney
24%
Emmanuel Macron
18%
JD Vance
12%
Donald Trump
4%
$500,395 Объем
Donald Tusk
77%
Ursula von der Leyen
36%
Friedrich Merz
43%
António Guterres
34%
Mark Rutte
42%
Mark Carney
24%
Emmanuel Macron
18%
JD Vance
12%
Donald Trump
4%
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic momentum from U.S. mediation efforts under President Trump shapes trader views on high-profile visits to Ukraine by year-end. Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff completed their first Kyiv trip on September 6, 2026, after Moscow meetings to advance ceasefire talks, following repeated postponements tied to regional tensions. This has elevated expectations for follow-on visits by figures like Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, given Poland's frontline role and frequent bilateral coordination, while lowering odds for U.S. President Trump or Vice President JD Vance absent a breakthrough. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte face moderate probabilities tied to ongoing support coordination and scheduled summits, including the UN General Assembly. Persistent conflict dynamics, air defense constraints on travel, and the need for verifiable reporting continue to anchor probabilities around skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term diplomatic traffic.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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