US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's October 2026 statements that Ukraine's NATO membership is currently off the agenda, with Washington prioritizing an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reinforce trader expectations that Kyiv will not formally agree to forgo accession before 2027. Ukraine's constitution enshrines NATO membership as a goal, while recent comments from President Zelenskyy emphasize alternative bilateral security guarantees instead. Structural barriers, including the need for unanimous NATO consensus and Article 5 concerns amid active hostilities, further limit near-term shifts. NATO military cooperation continues through exercises and support, yet no diplomatic breakthrough has produced a neutrality commitment. Late developments such as a comprehensive peace deal or major policy reversal by key allies remain the primary scenarios that could alter the current consensus reflected in market pricing.