Ongoing diplomatic impasse between Russia and Ukraine, with Moscow insisting on expert-level preparatory work before any Putin-Zelenskyy summit and favoring Moscow as a venue, sustains the leading 32.5% probability on no meeting by December 31, 2027. Recent US-mediated proposals for technical talks in the UAE and references to potential G20 formats have not produced concrete leader-level commitments, while Zelenskyy continues advocating neutral third-country sites. This uncertainty spreads implied probabilities across European options like Germany and Finland alongside Middle Eastern and other venues, reflecting traders' assessments of stalled direct engagement amid active US involvement and battlefield conditions. Scheduled diplomatic windows through 2027 could still shift these dynamics if preparatory conditions align.