Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened or advanced legislation to exit the NPT since 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities as justification under Article 10, with parliamentary bills introduced in 2025 and renewed pushes in March–July 2026. Despite this, Iran has not completed formal withdrawal procedures, instead suspending IAEA cooperation while continuing limited engagement and participating in U.S.-mediated nuclear talks that produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding. As of mid-August 2026, senior diplomats have signaled that conditions for deeper negotiations are absent but have kept withdrawal off the immediate agenda. Traders appear to weigh these repeated threats against the absence of completed action, the short remaining timeline before 2027, and ongoing diplomatic activity as factors supporting a low probability of exit.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыйдет ли Иран из ДНЯО до 2027 года?
Выйдет ли Иран из ДНЯО до 2027 года?
Да
14% вероятность
$367,778 Объем
$367,778 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
$367,778 Объем
$367,778 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened or advanced legislation to exit the NPT since 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities as justification under Article 10, with parliamentary bills introduced in 2025 and renewed pushes in March–July 2026. Despite this, Iran has not completed formal withdrawal procedures, instead suspending IAEA cooperation while continuing limited engagement and participating in U.S.-mediated nuclear talks that produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding. As of mid-August 2026, senior diplomats have signaled that conditions for deeper negotiations are absent but have kept withdrawal off the immediate agenda. Traders appear to weigh these repeated threats against the absence of completed action, the short remaining timeline before 2027, and ongoing diplomatic activity as factors supporting a low probability of exit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Объем
$367,778Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened or advanced legislation to exit the NPT since 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities as justification under Article 10, with parliamentary bills introduced in 2025 and renewed pushes in March–July 2026. Despite this, Iran has not completed formal withdrawal procedures, instead suspending IAEA cooperation while continuing limited engagement and participating in U.S.-mediated nuclear talks that produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding. As of mid-August 2026, senior diplomats have signaled that conditions for deeper negotiations are absent but have kept withdrawal off the immediate agenda. Traders appear to weigh these repeated threats against the absence of completed action, the short remaining timeline before 2027, and ongoing diplomatic activity as factors supporting a low probability of exit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$367,778Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened or advanced legislation to exit the NPT since 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities as justification under Article 10, with parliamentary bills introduced in 2025 and renewed pushes in March–July 2026. Despite this, Iran has not completed formal withdrawal procedures, instead suspending IAEA cooperation while continuing limited engagement and participating in U.S.-mediated nuclear talks that produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding. As of mid-August 2026, senior diplomats have signaled that conditions for deeper negotiations are absent but have kept withdrawal off the immediate agenda. Traders appear to weigh these repeated threats against the absence of completed action, the short remaining timeline before 2027, and ongoing diplomatic activity as factors supporting a low probability of exit.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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