**The near-certain market-implied odds of 99% against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the fundamental physical limits of Earth's crust.** According to the U.S. Geological Survey, no known fault is long enough to generate such an event; a magnitude 10 rupture would require a continuous fault spanning most of the planet's circumference, which does not exist. The moment magnitude scale ties maximum size directly to rupture length and depth, with the largest recorded quake at 9.5 (1960 Valdivia, Chile) on a roughly 1,000-mile fault. Recent monitoring by the USGS and other agencies shows ongoing activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka 8.8 megathrust and other events up to magnitude 7–8, but nothing approaching the threshold. While theoretically possible in rare scenarios like a massive asteroid impact, such triggers remain statistically negligible within the short timeframe and are not supported by current tectonic data or models.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
1% โอกาส
$815,118 ปริมาณ
$815,118 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
1% โอกาส
$815,118 ปริมาณ
$815,118 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**The near-certain market-implied odds of 99% against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the fundamental physical limits of Earth's crust.** According to the U.S. Geological Survey, no known fault is long enough to generate such an event; a magnitude 10 rupture would require a continuous fault spanning most of the planet's circumference, which does not exist. The moment magnitude scale ties maximum size directly to rupture length and depth, with the largest recorded quake at 9.5 (1960 Valdivia, Chile) on a roughly 1,000-mile fault. Recent monitoring by the USGS and other agencies shows ongoing activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka 8.8 megathrust and other events up to magnitude 7–8, but nothing approaching the threshold. While theoretically possible in rare scenarios like a massive asteroid impact, such triggers remain statistically negligible within the short timeframe and are not supported by current tectonic data or models.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$815,118วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**The near-certain market-implied odds of 99% against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the fundamental physical limits of Earth's crust.** According to the U.S. Geological Survey, no known fault is long enough to generate such an event; a magnitude 10 rupture would require a continuous fault spanning most of the planet's circumference, which does not exist. The moment magnitude scale ties maximum size directly to rupture length and depth, with the largest recorded quake at 9.5 (1960 Valdivia, Chile) on a roughly 1,000-mile fault. Recent monitoring by the USGS and other agencies shows ongoing activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka 8.8 megathrust and other events up to magnitude 7–8, but nothing approaching the threshold. While theoretically possible in rare scenarios like a massive asteroid impact, such triggers remain statistically negligible within the short timeframe and are not supported by current tectonic data or models.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$815,118วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**The near-certain market-implied odds of 99% against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the fundamental physical limits of Earth's crust.** According to the U.S. Geological Survey, no known fault is long enough to generate such an event; a magnitude 10 rupture would require a continuous fault spanning most of the planet's circumference, which does not exist. The moment magnitude scale ties maximum size directly to rupture length and depth, with the largest recorded quake at 9.5 (1960 Valdivia, Chile) on a roughly 1,000-mile fault. Recent monitoring by the USGS and other agencies shows ongoing activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka 8.8 megathrust and other events up to magnitude 7–8, but nothing approaching the threshold. While theoretically possible in rare scenarios like a massive asteroid impact, such triggers remain statistically negligible within the short timeframe and are not supported by current tectonic data or models.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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