USGS seismic data establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur, as no known fault segment is long enough to produce the required rupture length of several thousand kilometers. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with subsequent great earthquakes limited to the 9.1–9.3 range along major subduction zones. Current global monitoring shows no unusual strain accumulation or foreshock activity that would accelerate recurrence intervals of decades to centuries. Trader consensus at 94.8 percent for no event before 2027 therefore rests on these physical constraints and the absence of any observed shift in seismic catalogs through early 2026. Only an unforeseen revision in fault mechanics models could alter that outlook before resolution.