Mailza Assis (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Gladson Cameli’s Senate candidacy, secured 49.76% in the October 4 first round and advanced to the October 25 runoff against Alan Rick (Republicanos). Recent surveys from Quaest and Data Control show her holding a 17- to 31-point lead in the two-candidate contest, supported by victories in 19 of 22 municipalities, lower rejection rates, and endorsements from elected legislators across parties. Traders price her near-certain victory at 98.5% because the short remaining campaign window offers limited scope for shifts among undecided voters. A decisive upset would require an unusually large swing in turnout or late-breaking developments that reverse current polling trends before ballots close.