Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C in July 2026 and models projecting a very strong event through fall, drives the 96.4% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C relative to pre-industrial levels. This builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent observations, including July 2026 global surface temperatures averaging 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 baseline—the joint second-warmest July on record per Copernicus and NOAA data—alongside record ocean heat content. Historical analogs show strong El Niño events elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C or more above background trends. Realistic challenges include unexpected rapid weakening of the event or unforecast volcanic cooling, though current subsurface warmth and atmospheric coupling make substantial downward revisions unlikely before month-end data finalization.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 96.4%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,894 ปริมาณ
$13,894 ปริมาณ
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
96%
>1.29ºC 96.4%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,894 ปริมาณ
$13,894 ปริมาณ
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,077 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,549 ปริมาณ
3%
>1.29ºC
$6,270 ปริมาณ
96%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C in July 2026 and models projecting a very strong event through fall, drives the 96.4% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C relative to pre-industrial levels. This builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent observations, including July 2026 global surface temperatures averaging 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 baseline—the joint second-warmest July on record per Copernicus and NOAA data—alongside record ocean heat content. Historical analogs show strong El Niño events elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C or more above background trends. Realistic challenges include unexpected rapid weakening of the event or unforecast volcanic cooling, though current subsurface warmth and atmospheric coupling make substantial downward revisions unlikely before month-end data finalization.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,894วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C in July 2026 and models projecting a very strong event through fall, drives the 96.4% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C relative to pre-industrial levels. This builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent observations, including July 2026 global surface temperatures averaging 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 baseline—the joint second-warmest July on record per Copernicus and NOAA data—alongside record ocean heat content. Historical analogs show strong El Niño events elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C or more above background trends. Realistic challenges include unexpected rapid weakening of the event or unforecast volcanic cooling, though current subsurface warmth and atmospheric coupling make substantial downward revisions unlikely before month-end data finalization.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,894วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C in July 2026 and models projecting a very strong event through fall, drives the 96.4% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C relative to pre-industrial levels. This builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent observations, including July 2026 global surface temperatures averaging 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 baseline—the joint second-warmest July on record per Copernicus and NOAA data—alongside record ocean heat content. Historical analogs show strong El Niño events elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C or more above background trends. Realistic challenges include unexpected rapid weakening of the event or unforecast volcanic cooling, though current subsurface warmth and atmospheric coupling make substantial downward revisions unlikely before month-end data finalization.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย