**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election shows the CDU holding a narrow but consistent lead over the AfD in projected vote share.** Surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey in July and August place the CDU at 18–20% and the AfD at 16–19%, with the Left Party sometimes topping the field around 19–22%. This positioning underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability that the CDU will finish ahead of the AfD. Key drivers include the CDU’s status as the largest party from the 2023 repeat election, its current role leading the state coalition with the SPD, and the recent replacement of lead candidate Kai Wegner with Finance Senator Stefan Evers. National trends favoring the AfD have lifted its support in Berlin as well, yet the capital’s urban electorate and multi-party fragmentation have kept the CDU marginally ahead in most local surveys. No single late-breaking event has shifted these relative standings in the past month.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCDU
70% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
70% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election shows the CDU holding a narrow but consistent lead over the AfD in projected vote share.** Surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey in July and August place the CDU at 18–20% and the AfD at 16–19%, with the Left Party sometimes topping the field around 19–22%. This positioning underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability that the CDU will finish ahead of the AfD.
Key drivers include the CDU’s status as the largest party from the 2023 repeat election, its current role leading the state coalition with the SPD, and the recent replacement of lead candidate Kai Wegner with Finance Senator Stefan Evers. National trends favoring the AfD have lifted its support in Berlin as well, yet the capital’s urban electorate and multi-party fragmentation have kept the CDU marginally ahead in most local surveys. No single late-breaking event has shifted these relative standings in the past month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,674วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election shows the CDU holding a narrow but consistent lead over the AfD in projected vote share.** Surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey in July and August place the CDU at 18–20% and the AfD at 16–19%, with the Left Party sometimes topping the field around 19–22%. This positioning underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability that the CDU will finish ahead of the AfD.
Key drivers include the CDU’s status as the largest party from the 2023 repeat election, its current role leading the state coalition with the SPD, and the recent replacement of lead candidate Kai Wegner with Finance Senator Stefan Evers. National trends favoring the AfD have lifted its support in Berlin as well, yet the capital’s urban electorate and multi-party fragmentation have kept the CDU marginally ahead in most local surveys. No single late-breaking event has shifted these relative standings in the past month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,674วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election shows the CDU holding a narrow but consistent lead over the AfD in projected vote share.** Surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey in July and August place the CDU at 18–20% and the AfD at 16–19%, with the Left Party sometimes topping the field around 19–22%. This positioning underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability that the CDU will finish ahead of the AfD. Key drivers include the CDU’s status as the largest party from the 2023 repeat election, its current role leading the state coalition with the SPD, and the recent replacement of lead candidate Kai Wegner with Finance Senator Stefan Evers. National trends favoring the AfD have lifted its support in Berlin as well, yet the capital’s urban electorate and multi-party fragmentation have kept the CDU marginally ahead in most local surveys. No single late-breaking event has shifted these relative standings in the past month.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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