Traders overwhelmingly back Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 95.5% implied probability to remain the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 16 under style control off, reflecting its current #1 Elo ranking of 1504—driven by superior performance in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks per recent benchmarks like ARC-AGI-2 and SWE-bench, where it outpaces GPT-5.x variants and Gemini 3 Pro. Anthropic's April release of Opus 4.6 emphasized hybrid reasoning enhancements, solidifying its edge amid stable vote accumulation. With resolution imminent, challenges include a last-minute frontier model drop from OpenAI or Google, leaderboard shifts from surging user battles, or Opus 4.7 (thinking) overtaking via fresh optimizations, though such volatility has been low lately.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 95.4%
claude-opus-4-6 2.0%
Other 1.9%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$24,402 ปริมาณ
$24,402 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
95%
claude-opus-4-6
2%
Other
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
claude-opus-4-7
1%
gpt-5.5-high
<1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 95.4%
claude-opus-4-6 2.0%
Other 1.9%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$24,402 ปริมาณ
$24,402 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$6,150 ปริมาณ
95%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,576 ปริมาณ
2%
Other
$1,664 ปริมาณ
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$3,779 ปริมาณ
1%
claude-opus-4-7
$4,788 ปริมาณ
1%
gpt-5.5-high
$2,600 ปริมาณ
<1%
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 ปริมาณ
<1%
muse-spark
$1,218 ปริมาณ
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders overwhelmingly back Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 95.5% implied probability to remain the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 16 under style control off, reflecting its current #1 Elo ranking of 1504—driven by superior performance in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks per recent benchmarks like ARC-AGI-2 and SWE-bench, where it outpaces GPT-5.x variants and Gemini 3 Pro. Anthropic's April release of Opus 4.6 emphasized hybrid reasoning enhancements, solidifying its edge amid stable vote accumulation. With resolution imminent, challenges include a last-minute frontier model drop from OpenAI or Google, leaderboard shifts from surging user battles, or Opus 4.7 (thinking) overtaking via fresh optimizations, though such volatility has been low lately.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,402วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders overwhelmingly back Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 95.5% implied probability to remain the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 16 under style control off, reflecting its current #1 Elo ranking of 1504—driven by superior performance in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks per recent benchmarks like ARC-AGI-2 and SWE-bench, where it outpaces GPT-5.x variants and Gemini 3 Pro. Anthropic's April release of Opus 4.6 emphasized hybrid reasoning enhancements, solidifying its edge amid stable vote accumulation. With resolution imminent, challenges include a last-minute frontier model drop from OpenAI or Google, leaderboard shifts from surging user battles, or Opus 4.7 (thinking) overtaking via fresh optimizations, though such volatility has been low lately.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,402วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 95.5% implied probability to remain the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 16 under style control off, reflecting its current #1 Elo ranking of 1504—driven by superior performance in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks per recent benchmarks like ARC-AGI-2 and SWE-bench, where it outpaces GPT-5.x variants and Gemini 3 Pro. Anthropic's April release of Opus 4.6 emphasized hybrid reasoning enhancements, solidifying its edge amid stable vote accumulation. With resolution imminent, challenges include a last-minute frontier model drop from OpenAI or Google, leaderboard shifts from surging user battles, or Opus 4.7 (thinking) overtaking via fresh optimizations, though such volatility has been low lately.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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