Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson leads Polymarket odds at 98% implied probability to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, alongside challenger Eric Jones at 90%, reflecting trader consensus on Democratic dominance amid a fragmented Republican field of six low-funded candidates prone to vote splitting. Thompson's advantages stem from his 28-year tenure, California Democratic Party endorsement, and superior cash on hand ($2.56 million as of late March), bolstered by a May 2 Sacramento Bee endorsement and May 7 financial reports underscoring his broad donor base. Jones leverages strong receipts ($3.25 million), Our Revolution backing, and digital outreach targeting working families, with forecasting models aligning near 97% for his advancement. The redrawn district remains safely Democratic, with early voting underway and no public polls shifting sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-04 Primary Winners
CA-04 Primary Winners
$29,738 ปริมาณ
Mike Thompson
97%
Eric Jones
90%
Heath Fulkerson
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
7%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
Sharon Brown
2%
Mandy Ghusar
1%
$29,738 ปริมาณ
Mike Thompson
97%
Eric Jones
90%
Heath Fulkerson
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
7%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
Sharon Brown
2%
Mandy Ghusar
1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson leads Polymarket odds at 98% implied probability to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, alongside challenger Eric Jones at 90%, reflecting trader consensus on Democratic dominance amid a fragmented Republican field of six low-funded candidates prone to vote splitting. Thompson's advantages stem from his 28-year tenure, California Democratic Party endorsement, and superior cash on hand ($2.56 million as of late March), bolstered by a May 2 Sacramento Bee endorsement and May 7 financial reports underscoring his broad donor base. Jones leverages strong receipts ($3.25 million), Our Revolution backing, and digital outreach targeting working families, with forecasting models aligning near 97% for his advancement. The redrawn district remains safely Democratic, with early voting underway and no public polls shifting sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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