Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win California's 15th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it 72%-24% in 2024—bolstered by his 73% reelection in 2024 and superior fundraising with $257,000 cash on hand as of late March. Recent filing deadline on March 6 introduced challengers including Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, plus Republican Charles Hoelter, but GOP candidates lack comparable resources amid weak Republican voter registration. The upcoming June 2 top-two primary will advance the top two finishers regardless of party, yet historical base rates favor a Democratic lock even in a same-party runoff. Upsets could stem from a primary surprise elevating Hoelter, a Mullin scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though such shifts in safe blue seats remain rare.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$114,280 ปริมาณ
$114,280 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$114,280 ปริมาณ
$114,280 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$92,550 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican Party
$21,729 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win California's 15th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it 72%-24% in 2024—bolstered by his 73% reelection in 2024 and superior fundraising with $257,000 cash on hand as of late March. Recent filing deadline on March 6 introduced challengers including Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, plus Republican Charles Hoelter, but GOP candidates lack comparable resources amid weak Republican voter registration. The upcoming June 2 top-two primary will advance the top two finishers regardless of party, yet historical base rates favor a Democratic lock even in a same-party runoff. Upsets could stem from a primary surprise elevating Hoelter, a Mullin scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though such shifts in safe blue seats remain rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$114,280วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win California's 15th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it 72%-24% in 2024—bolstered by his 73% reelection in 2024 and superior fundraising with $257,000 cash on hand as of late March. Recent filing deadline on March 6 introduced challengers including Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, plus Republican Charles Hoelter, but GOP candidates lack comparable resources amid weak Republican voter registration. The upcoming June 2 top-two primary will advance the top two finishers regardless of party, yet historical base rates favor a Democratic lock even in a same-party runoff. Upsets could stem from a primary surprise elevating Hoelter, a Mullin scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though such shifts in safe blue seats remain rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$114,280วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win California's 15th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it 72%-24% in 2024—bolstered by his 73% reelection in 2024 and superior fundraising with $257,000 cash on hand as of late March. Recent filing deadline on March 6 introduced challengers including Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, plus Republican Charles Hoelter, but GOP candidates lack comparable resources amid weak Republican voter registration. The upcoming June 2 top-two primary will advance the top two finishers regardless of party, yet historical base rates favor a Democratic lock even in a same-party runoff. Upsets could stem from a primary surprise elevating Hoelter, a Mullin scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though such shifts in safe blue seats remain rare.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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