Polymarket traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that tempers rate-cut expectations. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly rise, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.5%-3.75% target range at the April meeting amid sticky inflation, aligning trader consensus on a patient stance. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC; significantly softer labor or inflation prints could challenge the hold by boosting 25 basis point cut odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 4.3%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 2.9%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 1.1%
$5,354,758 ปริมาณ
$5,354,758 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
4%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
3%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
<1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 4.3%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 2.9%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 1.1%
$5,354,758 ปริมาณ
$5,354,758 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
$508,136 ปริมาณ
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$396,415 ปริมาณ
4%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$622,210 ปริมาณ
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$3,362,624 ปริมาณ
3%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$465,373 ปริมาณ
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that tempers rate-cut expectations. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly rise, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.5%-3.75% target range at the April meeting amid sticky inflation, aligning trader consensus on a patient stance. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC; significantly softer labor or inflation prints could challenge the hold by boosting 25 basis point cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,354,758วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that tempers rate-cut expectations. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly rise, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.5%-3.75% target range at the April meeting amid sticky inflation, aligning trader consensus on a patient stance. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC; significantly softer labor or inflation prints could challenge the hold by boosting 25 basis point cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,354,758วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that tempers rate-cut expectations. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly rise, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.5%-3.75% target range at the April meeting amid sticky inflation, aligning trader consensus on a patient stance. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC; significantly softer labor or inflation prints could challenge the hold by boosting 25 basis point cut odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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