Google I/O 2026, scheduled for May 19-20, serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent leaks have placed the Flash variant in external benchmarks such as the Eleuther AI Arena, where it demonstrates strong coding, 3D simulation, and low-latency performance at roughly one-fifteenth the inference cost of comparable frontier models. This follows Google’s established cadence of surfacing model strings in API logs and preview channels one to two weeks before a public launch, with the lightweight 3.2 Flash positioned to compete directly against GPT-5.5 equivalents. While the timeline appears tightly aligned, any last-minute technical issues or a decision to rebrand the model as 3.5 could still shift the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMay 19 91%
May 18 4.4%
May 20 4.3%
No release by May 31 1.0%
$310,141 ปริมาณ
$310,141 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
91%
May 20
4%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 91%
May 18 4.4%
May 20 4.3%
No release by May 31 1.0%
$310,141 ปริมาณ
$310,141 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
May 16
$7,623 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 17
$12,546 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 18
$37,969 ปริมาณ
4%
May 19
$111,550 ปริมาณ
91%
May 20
$17,192 ปริมาณ
4%
May 21
$10,655 ปริมาณ
1%
May 22
$13,145 ปริมาณ
1%
May 23
$4,089 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 24
$4,895 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 25
$3,317 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 26
$3,936 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 27
$4,381 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 28
$3,029 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 29
$2,392 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 30
$6,223 ปริมาณ
<1%
May 31
$5,574 ปริมาณ
<1%
No release by May 31
$20,056 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google I/O 2026, scheduled for May 19-20, serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent leaks have placed the Flash variant in external benchmarks such as the Eleuther AI Arena, where it demonstrates strong coding, 3D simulation, and low-latency performance at roughly one-fifteenth the inference cost of comparable frontier models. This follows Google’s established cadence of surfacing model strings in API logs and preview channels one to two weeks before a public launch, with the lightweight 3.2 Flash positioned to compete directly against GPT-5.5 equivalents. While the timeline appears tightly aligned, any last-minute technical issues or a decision to rebrand the model as 3.5 could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$310,141วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google I/O 2026, scheduled for May 19-20, serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent leaks have placed the Flash variant in external benchmarks such as the Eleuther AI Arena, where it demonstrates strong coding, 3D simulation, and low-latency performance at roughly one-fifteenth the inference cost of comparable frontier models. This follows Google’s established cadence of surfacing model strings in API logs and preview channels one to two weeks before a public launch, with the lightweight 3.2 Flash positioned to compete directly against GPT-5.5 equivalents. While the timeline appears tightly aligned, any last-minute technical issues or a decision to rebrand the model as 3.5 could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$310,141วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google I/O 2026, scheduled for May 19-20, serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent leaks have placed the Flash variant in external benchmarks such as the Eleuther AI Arena, where it demonstrates strong coding, 3D simulation, and low-latency performance at roughly one-fifteenth the inference cost of comparable frontier models. This follows Google’s established cadence of surfacing model strings in API logs and preview channels one to two weeks before a public launch, with the lightweight 3.2 Flash positioned to compete directly against GPT-5.5 equivalents. While the timeline appears tightly aligned, any last-minute technical issues or a decision to rebrand the model as 3.5 could still shift the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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