**Northwest winds and a post-frontal air mass are positioning Chicago for a high temperature near 74°F on August 23, 2026, aligning with National Weather Service guidance of sunny skies and highs around 74°F under 10–15 mph north-northwest flow.** This setup favors the market’s leading 74–75°F bin (48.5% implied probability) by limiting daytime heating relative to August climatology of ~82°F. Lake Michigan moderation and residual cloud debris from earlier showers further cap warming, keeping 76–77°F (35%) as a plausible secondary outcome if insolation exceeds model assumptions. Recent model consensus from NWS and private forecasters shows little spread, with no warm advection or subsidence expected before the daily maximum. Traders are therefore concentrating probability in the mid-70s range, reflecting the tight forecast envelope and low likelihood of outliers above 78°F or below 72°F.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Chicago on August 23?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 23?
74-75°F 49%
76-77°F 35%
72-73°F 9%
78-79°F 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 23, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
35%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 49%
76-77°F 35%
72-73°F 9%
78-79°F 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 23, 2026
65°F or below
$213 ปริมาณ
<1%
66-67°F
$175 ปริมาณ
1%
68-69°F
$213 ปริมาณ
1%
70-71°F
$168 ปริมาณ
2%
72-73°F
$408 ปริมาณ
9%
74-75°F
$660 ปริมาณ
49%
76-77°F
$404 ปริมาณ
35%
78-79°F
$467 ปริมาณ
8%
80-81°F
$225 ปริมาณ
2%
82-83°F
$115 ปริมาณ
<1%
84°F or higher
$117 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Northwest winds and a post-frontal air mass are positioning Chicago for a high temperature near 74°F on August 23, 2026, aligning with National Weather Service guidance of sunny skies and highs around 74°F under 10–15 mph north-northwest flow.** This setup favors the market’s leading 74–75°F bin (48.5% implied probability) by limiting daytime heating relative to August climatology of ~82°F. Lake Michigan moderation and residual cloud debris from earlier showers further cap warming, keeping 76–77°F (35%) as a plausible secondary outcome if insolation exceeds model assumptions. Recent model consensus from NWS and private forecasters shows little spread, with no warm advection or subsidence expected before the daily maximum. Traders are therefore concentrating probability in the mid-70s range, reflecting the tight forecast envelope and low likelihood of outliers above 78°F or below 72°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,167วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Northwest winds and a post-frontal air mass are positioning Chicago for a high temperature near 74°F on August 23, 2026, aligning with National Weather Service guidance of sunny skies and highs around 74°F under 10–15 mph north-northwest flow.** This setup favors the market’s leading 74–75°F bin (48.5% implied probability) by limiting daytime heating relative to August climatology of ~82°F. Lake Michigan moderation and residual cloud debris from earlier showers further cap warming, keeping 76–77°F (35%) as a plausible secondary outcome if insolation exceeds model assumptions. Recent model consensus from NWS and private forecasters shows little spread, with no warm advection or subsidence expected before the daily maximum. Traders are therefore concentrating probability in the mid-70s range, reflecting the tight forecast envelope and low likelihood of outliers above 78°F or below 72°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,167วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Northwest winds and a post-frontal air mass are positioning Chicago for a high temperature near 74°F on August 23, 2026, aligning with National Weather Service guidance of sunny skies and highs around 74°F under 10–15 mph north-northwest flow.** This setup favors the market’s leading 74–75°F bin (48.5% implied probability) by limiting daytime heating relative to August climatology of ~82°F. Lake Michigan moderation and residual cloud debris from earlier showers further cap warming, keeping 76–77°F (35%) as a plausible secondary outcome if insolation exceeds model assumptions. Recent model consensus from NWS and private forecasters shows little spread, with no warm advection or subsidence expected before the daily maximum. Traders are therefore concentrating probability in the mid-70s range, reflecting the tight forecast envelope and low likelihood of outliers above 78°F or below 72°F.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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