Recent model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA indicates a most likely high temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s for New York City on August 26, driven by moderating southwest flow, moderate humidity, and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. The market's evenly distributed implied probabilities across multiple bins reflect genuine short-term uncertainty from divergent ensemble runs, potential timing shifts in a weak frontal boundary, and typical variability in urban heat island effects measured at Central Park. Historical August averages near 83°F provide context, yet current guidance emphasizes that small changes in cloud cover or wind could easily move the peak across several resolution thresholds before the daily maximum is recorded.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in NYC on August 26?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 26?
82-83°F 40%
80-81°F 37%
84-85°F 9%
78-79°F 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
4%
90°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 40%
80-81°F 37%
84-85°F 9%
78-79°F 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
71°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
74-75°F
$5 ปริมาณ
4%
76-77°F
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
78-79°F
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
80-81°F
$5 ปริมาณ
25%
82-83°F
$149 ปริมาณ
40%
84-85°F
$20 ปริมาณ
9%
86-87°F
$5 ปริมาณ
5%
88-89°F
$5 ปริมาณ
4%
90°F or higher
$10 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA indicates a most likely high temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s for New York City on August 26, driven by moderating southwest flow, moderate humidity, and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. The market's evenly distributed implied probabilities across multiple bins reflect genuine short-term uncertainty from divergent ensemble runs, potential timing shifts in a weak frontal boundary, and typical variability in urban heat island effects measured at Central Park. Historical August averages near 83°F provide context, yet current guidance emphasizes that small changes in cloud cover or wind could easily move the peak across several resolution thresholds before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$199วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA indicates a most likely high temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s for New York City on August 26, driven by moderating southwest flow, moderate humidity, and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. The market's evenly distributed implied probabilities across multiple bins reflect genuine short-term uncertainty from divergent ensemble runs, potential timing shifts in a weak frontal boundary, and typical variability in urban heat island effects measured at Central Park. Historical August averages near 83°F provide context, yet current guidance emphasizes that small changes in cloud cover or wind could easily move the peak across several resolution thresholds before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$199วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA indicates a most likely high temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s for New York City on August 26, driven by moderating southwest flow, moderate humidity, and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. The market's evenly distributed implied probabilities across multiple bins reflect genuine short-term uncertainty from divergent ensemble runs, potential timing shifts in a weak frontal boundary, and typical variability in urban heat island effects measured at Central Park. Historical August averages near 83°F provide context, yet current guidance emphasizes that small changes in cloud cover or wind could easily move the peak across several resolution thresholds before the daily maximum is recorded.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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