**Trader consensus centers on 31°C as the most probable maximum for Tokyo on August 19**, reflecting JMA guidance of mostly cloudy conditions that could limit peak heating despite an official 33°C forecast. Persistent influence of the strengthened Pacific High supports above-normal warmth typical of mid-August, with historical climatology showing Tokyo daily maxima averaging near 31–32°C amid high humidity and urban heat-island effects. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks confirm elevated temperatures across Honshu, yet short-range model spreads and potential for increased cloud cover or light showers introduce downside risk to the exact high. The 30–32°C cluster dominates implied odds because ensembles indicate these thresholds align with current steering patterns and observational trends, while probabilities drop sharply above 33°C given the narrow window before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?
31°C 41%
30°C 24%
32°C 19%
29°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 19, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
8%
30°C
24%
31°C
41%
32°C
19%
33°C
5%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 41%
30°C 24%
32°C 19%
29°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 19, 2026
25°C or below
$201 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$448 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$422 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$467 ปริมาณ
2%
29°C
$269 ปริมาณ
8%
30°C
$568 ปริมาณ
24%
31°C
$1,131 ปริมาณ
41%
32°C
$216 ปริมาณ
19%
33°C
$389 ปริมาณ
5%
34°C
$184 ปริมาณ
3%
35°C or higher
$130 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 31°C as the most probable maximum for Tokyo on August 19**, reflecting JMA guidance of mostly cloudy conditions that could limit peak heating despite an official 33°C forecast. Persistent influence of the strengthened Pacific High supports above-normal warmth typical of mid-August, with historical climatology showing Tokyo daily maxima averaging near 31–32°C amid high humidity and urban heat-island effects. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks confirm elevated temperatures across Honshu, yet short-range model spreads and potential for increased cloud cover or light showers introduce downside risk to the exact high. The 30–32°C cluster dominates implied odds because ensembles indicate these thresholds align with current steering patterns and observational trends, while probabilities drop sharply above 33°C given the narrow window before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,424วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 31°C as the most probable maximum for Tokyo on August 19**, reflecting JMA guidance of mostly cloudy conditions that could limit peak heating despite an official 33°C forecast. Persistent influence of the strengthened Pacific High supports above-normal warmth typical of mid-August, with historical climatology showing Tokyo daily maxima averaging near 31–32°C amid high humidity and urban heat-island effects. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks confirm elevated temperatures across Honshu, yet short-range model spreads and potential for increased cloud cover or light showers introduce downside risk to the exact high. The 30–32°C cluster dominates implied odds because ensembles indicate these thresholds align with current steering patterns and observational trends, while probabilities drop sharply above 33°C given the narrow window before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,424วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 31°C as the most probable maximum for Tokyo on August 19**, reflecting JMA guidance of mostly cloudy conditions that could limit peak heating despite an official 33°C forecast. Persistent influence of the strengthened Pacific High supports above-normal warmth typical of mid-August, with historical climatology showing Tokyo daily maxima averaging near 31–32°C amid high humidity and urban heat-island effects. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks confirm elevated temperatures across Honshu, yet short-range model spreads and potential for increased cloud cover or light showers introduce downside risk to the exact high. The 30–32°C cluster dominates implied odds because ensembles indicate these thresholds align with current steering patterns and observational trends, while probabilities drop sharply above 33°C given the narrow window before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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