Recent short-term forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show Tokyo highs near 31–33°C on August 18 under mostly cloudy skies with only isolated showers and low precipitation odds, keeping surface heating moderate. Typical August climatology features average daily maxima of 31°C amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect, but variable cloud cover and weak steering flow introduce uncertainty in peak insolation and afternoon convection. With outcomes clustered tightly around 30–31°C, traders weigh the balance between recent observed maxima near 31°C and the potential for slight cooling from increased cloudiness or a marginally stronger sea breeze. Updated model runs and official guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
31°C 40%
30°C 35%
32°C 10%
29°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
35%
31°C
40%
32°C
10%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 40%
30°C 35%
32°C 10%
29°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$686 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$143 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$219 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$162 ปริมาณ
3%
29°C
$730 ปริมาณ
8%
30°C
$1,041 ปริมาณ
35%
31°C
$720 ปริมาณ
40%
32°C
$985 ปริมาณ
10%
33°C
$482 ปริมาณ
2%
34°C
$459 ปริมาณ
2%
35°C or higher
$478 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show Tokyo highs near 31–33°C on August 18 under mostly cloudy skies with only isolated showers and low precipitation odds, keeping surface heating moderate. Typical August climatology features average daily maxima of 31°C amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect, but variable cloud cover and weak steering flow introduce uncertainty in peak insolation and afternoon convection. With outcomes clustered tightly around 30–31°C, traders weigh the balance between recent observed maxima near 31°C and the potential for slight cooling from increased cloudiness or a marginally stronger sea breeze. Updated model runs and official guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,104วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show Tokyo highs near 31–33°C on August 18 under mostly cloudy skies with only isolated showers and low precipitation odds, keeping surface heating moderate. Typical August climatology features average daily maxima of 31°C amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect, but variable cloud cover and weak steering flow introduce uncertainty in peak insolation and afternoon convection. With outcomes clustered tightly around 30–31°C, traders weigh the balance between recent observed maxima near 31°C and the potential for slight cooling from increased cloudiness or a marginally stronger sea breeze. Updated model runs and official guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,104วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show Tokyo highs near 31–33°C on August 18 under mostly cloudy skies with only isolated showers and low precipitation odds, keeping surface heating moderate. Typical August climatology features average daily maxima of 31°C amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect, but variable cloud cover and weak steering flow introduce uncertainty in peak insolation and afternoon convection. With outcomes clustered tightly around 30–31°C, traders weigh the balance between recent observed maxima near 31°C and the potential for slight cooling from increased cloudiness or a marginally stronger sea breeze. Updated model runs and official guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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