Recent JMA forecasts and seasonal outlooks position 32–33°C as the leading outcomes for Tokyo’s July 15 maximum, reflecting typical mid-July conditions under mostly cloudy skies with limited daytime heating. Above-normal summer temperatures are expected across Japan per the agency’s June–August guidance, consistent with climatological averages near 30–32°C and recent model consensus showing highs of 31–35°C. Short-term factors include moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that cap extreme peaks, while the absence of typhoon influences or clear-sky radiative heating keeps probabilities for 34°C+ below 5%. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader-implied odds within this narrow range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 15?
33°C 38%
32°C 37%
31°C 12%
34°C 9.7%
ใหม่
$10,112 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$10,112 ปริมาณ
Jul 15, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
12%
32°C
37%
33°C
38%
34°C
10%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 38%
32°C 37%
31°C 12%
34°C 9.7%
ใหม่
$10,112 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$10,112 ปริมาณ
Jul 15, 2026
26°C or below
$740 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$366 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$955 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$1,529 ปริมาณ
1%
30°C
$1,167 ปริมาณ
2%
31°C
$1,032 ปริมาณ
12%
32°C
$512 ปริมาณ
37%
33°C
$605 ปริมาณ
38%
34°C
$1,364 ปริมาณ
10%
35°C
$1,262 ปริมาณ
4%
36°C or higher
$581 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts and seasonal outlooks position 32–33°C as the leading outcomes for Tokyo’s July 15 maximum, reflecting typical mid-July conditions under mostly cloudy skies with limited daytime heating. Above-normal summer temperatures are expected across Japan per the agency’s June–August guidance, consistent with climatological averages near 30–32°C and recent model consensus showing highs of 31–35°C. Short-term factors include moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that cap extreme peaks, while the absence of typhoon influences or clear-sky radiative heating keeps probabilities for 34°C+ below 5%. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader-implied odds within this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,112วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts and seasonal outlooks position 32–33°C as the leading outcomes for Tokyo’s July 15 maximum, reflecting typical mid-July conditions under mostly cloudy skies with limited daytime heating. Above-normal summer temperatures are expected across Japan per the agency’s June–August guidance, consistent with climatological averages near 30–32°C and recent model consensus showing highs of 31–35°C. Short-term factors include moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that cap extreme peaks, while the absence of typhoon influences or clear-sky radiative heating keeps probabilities for 34°C+ below 5%. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader-implied odds within this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,112วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA forecasts and seasonal outlooks position 32–33°C as the leading outcomes for Tokyo’s July 15 maximum, reflecting typical mid-July conditions under mostly cloudy skies with limited daytime heating. Above-normal summer temperatures are expected across Japan per the agency’s June–August guidance, consistent with climatological averages near 30–32°C and recent model consensus showing highs of 31–35°C. Short-term factors include moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that cap extreme peaks, while the absence of typhoon influences or clear-sky radiative heating keeps probabilities for 34°C+ below 5%. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader-implied odds within this narrow range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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