As of mid-August 2026, trader sentiment for annual tropical cyclone landfalls in China shows tight clustering around seven (33.5%) versus more than eight (29.5%), driven by uncertainty in the remaining Western North Pacific season. Sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea and South China Sea remain elevated, supporting potential intensification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the strength and position of the subtropical ridge will determine whether additional systems track toward southern or eastern China coasts. Model consensus from agencies such as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and ECMWF currently diverges on late-summer genesis frequency and steering, with historical baselines of six to eight landfalls underscoring how shifts in the monsoon trough or ENSO-neutral conditions could tip totals either way before the season ends.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 27%
7 23%
5 23%
6 22%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
4%
5
23%
6
17%
7
32%
8
11%
Greater than 8
27%
Greater than 8 27%
7 23%
5 23%
6 22%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$332 ปริมาณ
4%
5
$1,043 ปริมาณ
23%
6
$572 ปริมาณ
17%
7
$306 ปริมาณ
32%
8
$142 ปริมาณ
11%
Greater than 8
$256 ปริมาณ
27%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).As of mid-August 2026, trader sentiment for annual tropical cyclone landfalls in China shows tight clustering around seven (33.5%) versus more than eight (29.5%), driven by uncertainty in the remaining Western North Pacific season. Sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea and South China Sea remain elevated, supporting potential intensification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the strength and position of the subtropical ridge will determine whether additional systems track toward southern or eastern China coasts. Model consensus from agencies such as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and ECMWF currently diverges on late-summer genesis frequency and steering, with historical baselines of six to eight landfalls underscoring how shifts in the monsoon trough or ENSO-neutral conditions could tip totals either way before the season ends.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,652วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).As of mid-August 2026, trader sentiment for annual tropical cyclone landfalls in China shows tight clustering around seven (33.5%) versus more than eight (29.5%), driven by uncertainty in the remaining Western North Pacific season. Sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea and South China Sea remain elevated, supporting potential intensification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the strength and position of the subtropical ridge will determine whether additional systems track toward southern or eastern China coasts. Model consensus from agencies such as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and ECMWF currently diverges on late-summer genesis frequency and steering, with historical baselines of six to eight landfalls underscoring how shifts in the monsoon trough or ENSO-neutral conditions could tip totals either way before the season ends.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,652วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...As of mid-August 2026, trader sentiment for annual tropical cyclone landfalls in China shows tight clustering around seven (33.5%) versus more than eight (29.5%), driven by uncertainty in the remaining Western North Pacific season. Sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea and South China Sea remain elevated, supporting potential intensification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the strength and position of the subtropical ridge will determine whether additional systems track toward southern or eastern China coasts. Model consensus from agencies such as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and ECMWF currently diverges on late-summer genesis frequency and steering, with historical baselines of six to eight landfalls underscoring how shifts in the monsoon trough or ENSO-neutral conditions could tip totals either way before the season ends.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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