Incumbent Republican Derek Schmidt defeated Democratic challenger Don Coover by roughly 6.5 points in the November 3, 2026, election for Kansas’s 2nd congressional district, aligning closely with trader consensus around the 3-6% and 6-9% Republican victory ranges. Pre-election polling averages showed a narrow contest in a district long held by Republicans, with Schmidt’s incumbency advantage and emphasis on border security and law enforcement offset by Coover’s positioning as a political outsider drawing support from veterans and rural voters. Late-arriving mail and provisional ballots, along with the district’s mix of suburban and agricultural areas, kept the final margin tight until results stabilized near 51.4% to 44.9%. Traders continue to weigh any remaining certification adjustments against historical midterm patterns for similar seats.