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การเลือกตั้ง·ตะวันออกกลาง

ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน

icon for ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน
การเลือกตั้ง·ตะวันออกกลาง

ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน

ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล) 7.2%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 6.1%

เฮซบอลเลาะห์ (Hezb) 3.1%

สมาคมโครงการอิสลามเพื่อการกุศล (ICPA) 2.7%

Polymarket

$533,556 ปริมาณ

ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล) 7.2%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 6.1%

เฮซบอลเลาะห์ (Hezb) 3.1%

สมาคมโครงการอิสลามเพื่อการกุศล (ICPA) 2.7%

Polymarket

$533,556 ปริมาณ

ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)

$53,741 ปริมาณ

7%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$158,101 ปริมาณ

6%

เฮซบอลเลาะห์ (Hezb)

$44,059 ปริมาณ

3%

สมาคมโครงการอิสลามเพื่อการกุศล (ICPA)

$4,420 ปริมาณ

3%

พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom)

$6,552 ปริมาณ

3%

กลุ่มอิสลาม (IG)

$3,585 ปริมาณ

2%

พันธมิตรวะตะนี (วะตะนี)

$4,745 ปริมาณ

2%

ขบวนการมาราดา (MM)

$4,033 ปริมาณ

2%

ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM)

$74,522 ปริมาณ

2%

พรรคกาตาเอบ (Kataeb)

$4,179 ปริมาณ

2%

ReLebanon

$3,499 ปริมาณ

1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$4,584 ปริมาณ

1%

พรรคชาตินิยมเสรี (NLP)

$5,135 ปริมาณ

1%

Union Party (UP)

$3,376 ปริมาณ

1%

พรรคสนทนาแห่งชาติ (NDP)

$41,888 ปริมาณ

<1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$5,112 ปริมาณ

<1%

พรรคมะดะ (มะดะ)

$24,363 ปริมาณ

<1%

ลานา – พรรคประชาธิปไตยสังคม (ลานา)

$4,450 ปริมาณ

<1%

พรรคอาหรับสังคมนิยมบาธในเลบานอน (บาธ)

$6,573 ปริมาณ

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,330 ปริมาณ

<1%

พรรคสังคมนิยมก้าวหน้า (PSP)

$47,456 ปริมาณ

<1%

ขบวนการอิสรภาพ (IM)

$3,135 ปริมาณ

<1%

ขบวนการศักดิ์ศรี (DM)

$22,716 ปริมาณ

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed for two years by a March 9 parliamentary vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities and related security disruptions. This extension has left the contest for the most seats unusually open, with Amal Movement holding the highest trader-implied probability at 7.3 percent and no other listed party or alliance exceeding 6.1 percent. Ongoing displacement, logistical challenges in southern districts, and the fragmented nature of sectarian coalitions continue to limit consolidation behind any single contender. Key variables that could shift positioning include the timing of any ceasefire, voter registration deadlines, diaspora participation rules, and the performance of independent or reformist lists in key battleground areas.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$533,556
วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed for two years by a March 9 parliamentary vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities and related security disruptions. This extension has left the contest for the most seats unusually open, with Amal Movement holding the highest trader-implied probability at 7.3 percent and no other listed party or alliance exceeding 6.1 percent. Ongoing displacement, logistical challenges in southern districts, and the fragmented nature of sectarian coalitions continue to limit consolidation behind any single contender. Key variables that could shift positioning include the timing of any ceasefire, voter registration deadlines, diaspora participation rules, and the performance of independent or reformist lists in key battleground areas.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$533,556
วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก

คำถามที่พบบ่อย

"ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" เป็นตลาดทำนายผลบน Polymarket ที่มี 23 ผลลัพธ์ที่เป็นไปได้ โดยนักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้นตามสิ่งที่เชื่อว่าจะเกิดขึ้น ผลลัพธ์ที่นำอยู่ในปัจจุบันคือ "ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)" ที่ 7% ตามด้วย "Lebanese Forces (LF)" ที่ 6% ราคาสะท้อนความน่าจะเป็นจากฝูงชนแบบเรียลไทม์ ตัวอย่างเช่น หุ้นที่มีราคา 7¢ หมายความว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 7% กับผลลัพธ์นั้น อัตราเหล่านี้เปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลาตามที่นักเทรดตอบสนองต่อข้อมูลและพัฒนาการใหม่ หุ้นในผลลัพธ์ที่ถูกต้องสามารถแลกได้ $1 ต่อหุ้นเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล

ณ วันนี้ "ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" มีปริมาณการซื้อขายรวม $533.6K ตั้งแต่ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ Jan 6, 2026 ระดับการซื้อขายนี้สะท้อนถึงการมีส่วนร่วมอย่างมากจากชุมชน Polymarket และช่วยให้อัตราปัจจุบันได้รับข้อมูลจากผู้เข้าร่วมตลาดจำนวนมาก คุณสามารถติดตามการเคลื่อนไหวของราคาแบบสดและเทรดผลลัพธ์ใดก็ได้จากหน้านี้โดยตรง

ในการเทรด "ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" ดู 23 ผลลัพธ์ที่มีในหน้านี้ แต่ละผลลัพธ์แสดงราคาปัจจุบันที่เป็นตัวแทนความน่าจะเป็นโดยนัยของตลาด เลือกผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเชื่อว่ามีโอกาสสูงสุด เลือก "Yes" เพื่อเทรดสนับสนุนหรือ "No" เพื่อเทรดคัดค้าน ใส่จำนวนเงินแล้วกด "Trade" ถ้าผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเลือกถูกต้องเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล หุ้น "Yes" ของคุณจ่าย $1 ต่อหุ้น ถ้าไม่ถูกต้อง จ่าย $0 คุณยังสามารถขายหุ้นได้ตลอดเวลาก่อนการตัดสินผลหากต้องการล็อกกำไรหรือตัดขาดทุน

นี่เป็นตลาดที่เปิดกว้าง ผู้นำปัจจุบันสำหรับ "ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" คือ "ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)" ที่เพียง 7% โดย "Lebanese Forces (LF)" ตามมาติดๆ ที่ 6% เนื่องจากไม่มีผลลัพธ์ใดครองเสียงข้างมาก นักเทรดมองว่ามีความไม่แน่นอนสูง ซึ่งอาจเป็นโอกาสในการเทรดที่น่าสนใจ อัตราเหล่านี้อัปเดตแบบเรียลไทม์ บุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้เพื่อดูว่าความน่าจะเป็นเปลี่ยนไปอย่างไร

กฎการตัดสินผลของ "ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" กำหนดอย่างชัดเจนว่าต้องเกิดอะไรขึ้นเพื่อให้แต่ละผลลัพธ์ถูกประกาศเป็นผู้ชนะ รวมถึงแหล่งข้อมูลอย่างเป็นทางการที่ใช้ตัดสินผล คุณสามารถตรวจสอบเกณฑ์การตัดสินผลทั้งหมดได้ในส่วน "กฎ" บนหน้านี้เหนือความคิดเห็น เราแนะนำให้อ่านกฎอย่างละเอียดก่อนเทรด เพราะกฎระบุเงื่อนไขเฉพาะ กรณีพิเศษ และแหล่งข้อมูลที่ควบคุมการตัดสินตลาดนี้