**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, centers on 24–26°C, with 25°C leading at 42% implied probability and 26°C at 32%.** These align closely with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance of 25–29°C and multiple model runs showing overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F). Primary drivers include persistent northwest to northwesterly flow associated with a nearby tropical cyclone (Sadul/Sadul), which maintains cloud cover, showers, and elevated humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. High dew points in the low-to-mid 20s further support minimum temperatures in this narrow band rather than sharper drops. Recent observations from September 2–3 show similar conditions with overnight readings around 24–26°C under comparable wind and moisture regimes. Model consensus (including local and global guidance) points to continued partly cloudy to cloudy skies and scattered showers on the 4th, keeping the minimum from falling below ~24°C or rising much above 26°C. A modest uptick in southerly flow later in the period could slightly raise the floor, but current steering patterns and moisture favor the 25°C outcome as the most probable resolution threshold. Upcoming HKO forecast updates and any revisions to cyclone track or intensity will be the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
25°C 42%
26°C 32%
24°C 20%
22°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C
20%
25°C
42%
26°C
32%
27°C
9%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
7%
25°C 42%
26°C 32%
24°C 20%
22°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
$875 ปริมาณ
1%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
22°C
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
23°C
$178 ปริมาณ
5%
24°C
$65 ปริมาณ
20%
25°C
$1,890 ปริมาณ
42%
26°C
$347 ปริมาณ
32%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
30°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, centers on 24–26°C, with 25°C leading at 42% implied probability and 26°C at 32%.** These align closely with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance of 25–29°C and multiple model runs showing overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F).
Primary drivers include persistent northwest to northwesterly flow associated with a nearby tropical cyclone (Sadul/Sadul), which maintains cloud cover, showers, and elevated humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. High dew points in the low-to-mid 20s further support minimum temperatures in this narrow band rather than sharper drops. Recent observations from September 2–3 show similar conditions with overnight readings around 24–26°C under comparable wind and moisture regimes.
Model consensus (including local and global guidance) points to continued partly cloudy to cloudy skies and scattered showers on the 4th, keeping the minimum from falling below ~24°C or rising much above 26°C. A modest uptick in southerly flow later in the period could slightly raise the floor, but current steering patterns and moisture favor the 25°C outcome as the most probable resolution threshold. Upcoming HKO forecast updates and any revisions to cyclone track or intensity will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,355วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, centers on 24–26°C, with 25°C leading at 42% implied probability and 26°C at 32%.** These align closely with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance of 25–29°C and multiple model runs showing overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F).
Primary drivers include persistent northwest to northwesterly flow associated with a nearby tropical cyclone (Sadul/Sadul), which maintains cloud cover, showers, and elevated humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. High dew points in the low-to-mid 20s further support minimum temperatures in this narrow band rather than sharper drops. Recent observations from September 2–3 show similar conditions with overnight readings around 24–26°C under comparable wind and moisture regimes.
Model consensus (including local and global guidance) points to continued partly cloudy to cloudy skies and scattered showers on the 4th, keeping the minimum from falling below ~24°C or rising much above 26°C. A modest uptick in southerly flow later in the period could slightly raise the floor, but current steering patterns and moisture favor the 25°C outcome as the most probable resolution threshold. Upcoming HKO forecast updates and any revisions to cyclone track or intensity will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,355วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, centers on 24–26°C, with 25°C leading at 42% implied probability and 26°C at 32%.** These align closely with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance of 25–29°C and multiple model runs showing overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F). Primary drivers include persistent northwest to northwesterly flow associated with a nearby tropical cyclone (Sadul/Sadul), which maintains cloud cover, showers, and elevated humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. High dew points in the low-to-mid 20s further support minimum temperatures in this narrow band rather than sharper drops. Recent observations from September 2–3 show similar conditions with overnight readings around 24–26°C under comparable wind and moisture regimes. Model consensus (including local and global guidance) points to continued partly cloudy to cloudy skies and scattered showers on the 4th, keeping the minimum from falling below ~24°C or rising much above 26°C. A modest uptick in southerly flow later in the period could slightly raise the floor, but current steering patterns and moisture favor the 25°C outcome as the most probable resolution threshold. Upcoming HKO forecast updates and any revisions to cyclone track or intensity will be the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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