Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Warsaw on September 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points around 9–11°C, limiting strong radiational cooling. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for outcomes around 8°C while the notable probability on 5°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor cold advection. Recent observations show variable September lows fluctuating between 5–14°C, underscoring model spread. Updated runs from major centers expected overnight will likely narrow guidance ahead of the overnight minimum period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
5°C or below 64%
15°C or higher 63%
8°C 43%
9°C 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
64%
6°C
9%
7°C
21%
8°C
43%
9°C
40%
10°C
39%
11°C
37%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C
14%
15°C or higher
63%
5°C or below 64%
15°C or higher 63%
8°C 43%
9°C 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
64%
6°C
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
7°C
$76 ปริมาณ
21%
8°C
$67 ปริมาณ
43%
9°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
10°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
11°C
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
12°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
13°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
15°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
63%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Warsaw on September 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points around 9–11°C, limiting strong radiational cooling. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for outcomes around 8°C while the notable probability on 5°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor cold advection. Recent observations show variable September lows fluctuating between 5–14°C, underscoring model spread. Updated runs from major centers expected overnight will likely narrow guidance ahead of the overnight minimum period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$142วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Warsaw on September 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points around 9–11°C, limiting strong radiational cooling. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for outcomes around 8°C while the notable probability on 5°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor cold advection. Recent observations show variable September lows fluctuating between 5–14°C, underscoring model spread. Updated runs from major centers expected overnight will likely narrow guidance ahead of the overnight minimum period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$142วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Warsaw on September 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points around 9–11°C, limiting strong radiational cooling. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for outcomes around 8°C while the notable probability on 5°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor cold advection. Recent observations show variable September lows fluctuating between 5–14°C, underscoring model spread. Updated runs from major centers expected overnight will likely narrow guidance ahead of the overnight minimum period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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