Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers. This early deficit, combined with thin ice and near-record low volumes tracked by the PIOMAS model through April and May, accelerates melt potential under above-average air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern adds further risk by altering atmospheric circulation and heat transport. Historical analogs from recent low-max winters show accelerated summer declines, though final outcomes remain sensitive to June–August weather patterns and model consensus updates from the Sea Ice Prediction Network.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.8%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,619 ปริมาณ
$48,619 ปริมาณ
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
<4m sq km 57%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.8%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,619 ปริมาณ
$48,619 ปริมาณ
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,113 ปริมาณ
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,465 ปริมาณ
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,313 ปริมาณ
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,387 ปริมาณ
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,948 ปริมาณ
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 ปริมาณ
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers. This early deficit, combined with thin ice and near-record low volumes tracked by the PIOMAS model through April and May, accelerates melt potential under above-average air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern adds further risk by altering atmospheric circulation and heat transport. Historical analogs from recent low-max winters show accelerated summer declines, though final outcomes remain sensitive to June–August weather patterns and model consensus updates from the Sea Ice Prediction Network.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,619วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers. This early deficit, combined with thin ice and near-record low volumes tracked by the PIOMAS model through April and May, accelerates melt potential under above-average air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern adds further risk by altering atmospheric circulation and heat transport. Historical analogs from recent low-max winters show accelerated summer declines, though final outcomes remain sensitive to June–August weather patterns and model consensus updates from the Sea Ice Prediction Network.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,619วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers. This early deficit, combined with thin ice and near-record low volumes tracked by the PIOMAS model through April and May, accelerates melt potential under above-average air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern adds further risk by altering atmospheric circulation and heat transport. Historical analogs from recent low-max winters show accelerated summer declines, though final outcomes remain sensitive to June–August weather patterns and model consensus updates from the Sea Ice Prediction Network.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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