Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model runs indicate Miami’s highest temperature on May 17 will most likely fall in the mid-to-upper 80s, with ensemble guidance centering on 86–88 °F amid typical late-spring subtropical moisture and light easterly flow. Sea-surface temperatures near 80 °F in the adjacent Atlantic sustain high humidity that limits daytime cooling, while the absence of strong cold fronts or tropical moisture surges keeps afternoon convection from suppressing the peak. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 85 °F, and current short-range forecasts remain stable with only minor day-to-day adjustments expected before the 24-hour window closes. These conditions explain why the market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 86–89 °F.