Conflicting model ensembles are driving the near-even split between sub-63°F and 82°F-plus outcomes for New York City’s lowest temperature on May 20. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge sharply on the arrival and strength of a potential cold front versus persistent southerly flow, with one cluster favoring overnight radiational cooling under clearing skies and northwest winds that could drop readings into the upper 50s, while warmer scenarios maintain a stable air mass and cloud cover that limits cooling. Historical May climatology shows typical lows near 55–60°F, yet the current spread reflects genuine forecast uncertainty four days out, with updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means expected to narrow the range as the period approaches.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in NYC on May 20?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 20?
63°F or below 97%
82°F or higher 93%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 20%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 20, 2026
63°F or below
97%
64-65°F
10%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
14%
82°F or higher
93%
63°F or below 97%
82°F or higher 93%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 20%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 20, 2026
63°F or below
$23 ปริมาณ
97%
64-65°F
$30 ปริมาณ
10%
66-67°F
$0 ปริมาณ
13%
68-69°F
$0 ปริมาณ
15%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
18%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
76-77°F
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
78-79°F
$0 ปริมาณ
16%
80-81°F
$30 ปริมาณ
14%
82°F or higher
$23 ปริมาณ
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Conflicting model ensembles are driving the near-even split between sub-63°F and 82°F-plus outcomes for New York City’s lowest temperature on May 20. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge sharply on the arrival and strength of a potential cold front versus persistent southerly flow, with one cluster favoring overnight radiational cooling under clearing skies and northwest winds that could drop readings into the upper 50s, while warmer scenarios maintain a stable air mass and cloud cover that limits cooling. Historical May climatology shows typical lows near 55–60°F, yet the current spread reflects genuine forecast uncertainty four days out, with updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means expected to narrow the range as the period approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$106วันสิ้นสุด
May 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Conflicting model ensembles are driving the near-even split between sub-63°F and 82°F-plus outcomes for New York City’s lowest temperature on May 20. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge sharply on the arrival and strength of a potential cold front versus persistent southerly flow, with one cluster favoring overnight radiational cooling under clearing skies and northwest winds that could drop readings into the upper 50s, while warmer scenarios maintain a stable air mass and cloud cover that limits cooling. Historical May climatology shows typical lows near 55–60°F, yet the current spread reflects genuine forecast uncertainty four days out, with updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means expected to narrow the range as the period approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$106วันสิ้นสุด
May 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAConflicting model ensembles are driving the near-even split between sub-63°F and 82°F-plus outcomes for New York City’s lowest temperature on May 20. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge sharply on the arrival and strength of a potential cold front versus persistent southerly flow, with one cluster favoring overnight radiational cooling under clearing skies and northwest winds that could drop readings into the upper 50s, while warmer scenarios maintain a stable air mass and cloud cover that limits cooling. Historical May climatology shows typical lows near 55–60°F, yet the current spread reflects genuine forecast uncertainty four days out, with updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means expected to narrow the range as the period approaches.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย