Recent Met Office and European ensemble model runs have converged on a London maximum of 13–15 °C for May 16, driven by persistent northerly flow that has advected cooler maritime air across southern England and suppressed the seasonal warming typical of mid-May. This positions 14 °C as the market favorite at 42.5 % implied probability, closely followed by 15 °C at 36.5 %, while higher outcomes remain discounted because forecast soundings show limited insolation under variable cloud cover and light winds. Traders are therefore focusing on the narrow spread between these two bins, which align with official guidance and leave little room for the 17 °C or warmer scenarios that would require a rapid shift to southerly flow. Resolution will hinge on the Met Office’s official Kew Gardens reading, with any final model adjustment before midday likely to decide between the leading contracts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in London on May 16?
Highest temperature in London on May 16?
14°C 44%
15°C 40%
16°C 8%
13°C 5.8%
$119,776 ปริมาณ
$119,776 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
6%
14°C
44%
15°C
40%
16°C
8%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 44%
15°C 40%
16°C 8%
13°C 5.8%
$119,776 ปริมาณ
$119,776 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
11°C
$8,390 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$23,764 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$13,024 ปริมาณ
6%
14°C
$12,014 ปริมาณ
44%
15°C
$11,224 ปริมาณ
40%
16°C
$10,470 ปริมาณ
8%
17°C
$10,000 ปริมาณ
1%
18°C
$6,427 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$2,116 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C or higher
$2,459 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Met Office and European ensemble model runs have converged on a London maximum of 13–15 °C for May 16, driven by persistent northerly flow that has advected cooler maritime air across southern England and suppressed the seasonal warming typical of mid-May. This positions 14 °C as the market favorite at 42.5 % implied probability, closely followed by 15 °C at 36.5 %, while higher outcomes remain discounted because forecast soundings show limited insolation under variable cloud cover and light winds. Traders are therefore focusing on the narrow spread between these two bins, which align with official guidance and leave little room for the 17 °C or warmer scenarios that would require a rapid shift to southerly flow. Resolution will hinge on the Met Office’s official Kew Gardens reading, with any final model adjustment before midday likely to decide between the leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$119,776วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Met Office and European ensemble model runs have converged on a London maximum of 13–15 °C for May 16, driven by persistent northerly flow that has advected cooler maritime air across southern England and suppressed the seasonal warming typical of mid-May. This positions 14 °C as the market favorite at 42.5 % implied probability, closely followed by 15 °C at 36.5 %, while higher outcomes remain discounted because forecast soundings show limited insolation under variable cloud cover and light winds. Traders are therefore focusing on the narrow spread between these two bins, which align with official guidance and leave little room for the 17 °C or warmer scenarios that would require a rapid shift to southerly flow. Resolution will hinge on the Met Office’s official Kew Gardens reading, with any final model adjustment before midday likely to decide between the leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$119,776วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and European ensemble model runs have converged on a London maximum of 13–15 °C for May 16, driven by persistent northerly flow that has advected cooler maritime air across southern England and suppressed the seasonal warming typical of mid-May. This positions 14 °C as the market favorite at 42.5 % implied probability, closely followed by 15 °C at 36.5 %, while higher outcomes remain discounted because forecast soundings show limited insolation under variable cloud cover and light winds. Traders are therefore focusing on the narrow spread between these two bins, which align with official guidance and leave little room for the 17 °C or warmer scenarios that would require a rapid shift to southerly flow. Resolution will hinge on the Met Office’s official Kew Gardens reading, with any final model adjustment before midday likely to decide between the leading contracts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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