Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and global models show a daytime maximum near 15 °C in Amsterdam on May 18, with the 14–16 °C range holding roughly equal odds because of modest uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. A moderate southwesterly flow is advecting mild maritime air across the North Sea, keeping temperatures close to the long-term May average of 16 °C while preventing either strong warming or sharp cooling. Surface observations from the past 48 hours indicate stable pressure gradients and only light showers, conditions that limit rapid temperature shifts. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable model solutions while watching the next high-resolution runs for any adjustment in the 500 hPa ridge position.