Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from the GFS and ECMWF indicate Central Park overnight lows near 66–68°F on May 19, with the tightest probabilities concentrated in the 66–69°F range. High-pressure ridging across the Northeast is the dominant driver, promoting subsidence, light winds, and only partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clearer May nights. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology, where average lows sit around 54–57°F under more variable flow. Minor model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing create the narrow spread between the leading bins, while the risk of stronger cooling or a brief surge of cooler air remains low given the stable pattern. Updated 00Z and 12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.