Recent Hong Kong Observatory model consensus and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS project a daily maximum of 27–28 °C for May 18, reflecting typical mid-May subtropical monsoon conditions with elevated humidity near 80 %, scattered showers, and southerly flow from the South China Sea that curbs solar heating. These factors create a narrow temperature band, explaining the near-even trader split between the two leading outcomes and the steep drop-off beyond 29 °C. Historical climatology for the period shows average highs of 28–29 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation this week introduce realistic downside risk to 26 °C. Updated forecast runs and official HKO briefings expected within 48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
27°C 32%
28°C 31%
26°C 14%
29°C 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
10%
26°C
14%
27°C
32%
28°C
31%
29°C
12%
30°C
8%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 32%
28°C 31%
26°C 14%
29°C 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$636 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$408 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$649 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$75 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$520 ปริมาณ
10%
26°C
$211 ปริมาณ
14%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
32%
28°C
$11 ปริมาณ
31%
29°C
$99 ปริมาณ
12%
30°C
$2 ปริมาณ
8%
31°C or higher
$25 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory model consensus and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS project a daily maximum of 27–28 °C for May 18, reflecting typical mid-May subtropical monsoon conditions with elevated humidity near 80 %, scattered showers, and southerly flow from the South China Sea that curbs solar heating. These factors create a narrow temperature band, explaining the near-even trader split between the two leading outcomes and the steep drop-off beyond 29 °C. Historical climatology for the period shows average highs of 28–29 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation this week introduce realistic downside risk to 26 °C. Updated forecast runs and official HKO briefings expected within 48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,636วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory model consensus and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS project a daily maximum of 27–28 °C for May 18, reflecting typical mid-May subtropical monsoon conditions with elevated humidity near 80 %, scattered showers, and southerly flow from the South China Sea that curbs solar heating. These factors create a narrow temperature band, explaining the near-even trader split between the two leading outcomes and the steep drop-off beyond 29 °C. Historical climatology for the period shows average highs of 28–29 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation this week introduce realistic downside risk to 26 °C. Updated forecast runs and official HKO briefings expected within 48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,636วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent Hong Kong Observatory model consensus and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS project a daily maximum of 27–28 °C for May 18, reflecting typical mid-May subtropical monsoon conditions with elevated humidity near 80 %, scattered showers, and southerly flow from the South China Sea that curbs solar heating. These factors create a narrow temperature band, explaining the near-even trader split between the two leading outcomes and the steep drop-off beyond 29 °C. Historical climatology for the period shows average highs of 28–29 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation this week introduce realistic downside risk to 26 °C. Updated forecast runs and official HKO briefings expected within 48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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