Andy Burnham leads trader consensus for the next UK prime minister due to his strong positioning within the Labour Party following heavy local election defeats that intensified pressure on Keir Starmer. Recent cabinet resignations, including from Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and Angela Rayner’s resolution of prior tax matters have opened pathways for a potential leadership contest. Burnham’s announced bid to return to Parliament through the Makerfield by-election, now cleared by the National Executive Committee, underpins his elevated probability, while the 11.5% chance of no change by year-end reflects uncertainty over whether Starmer can stabilize the government amid ongoing internal challenges and procedural hurdles for any successor.