Incumbent Republican Mike Turner faces Democratic challenger Kristina Knickerbocker in Ohio’s 10th Congressional District on November 3, 2026. Trader consensus reflects a competitive contest, with limited recent public polling showing Turner ahead by single digits while some internal surveys indicate Knickerbocker narrowing the gap after positive messaging on her background as a veteran and nurse practitioner. National generic congressional ballot trends favoring Democrats, combined with the district’s moderate Republican lean from the 2024 presidential results, keep the race tight. Key variables that could widen margins include sustained campaign spending, turnout among suburban voters around Dayton, and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment.