**The high probability assigned to "No" for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 reflects its repeated passage in the House but persistent failure to advance through the Senate.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House in April 2025 and saw additional versions approved in February 2026 by narrow margins. It has remained stalled in the Senate since receipt, where a 60-vote threshold to overcome a filibuster has proven insurmountable. Republicans hold 53 seats but lack sufficient Democratic support and face internal divisions, with at least one Republican senator opposing cloture. Attempts to attach provisions to the NDAA, a congressional stock-trading measure, or pursue budget reconciliation have not succeeded. As of mid-August 2026, the Senate has recessed without action, leaving little legislative calendar time before the 2026 midterms. Traders view these procedural and partisan barriers, consistent with prior failed iterations, as decisive barriers to enactment this year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$190,663 ปริมาณ
$190,663 ปริมาณ
$190,663 ปริมาณ
$190,663 ปริมาณ
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**The high probability assigned to "No" for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 reflects its repeated passage in the House but persistent failure to advance through the Senate.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House in April 2025 and saw additional versions approved in February 2026 by narrow margins. It has remained stalled in the Senate since receipt, where a 60-vote threshold to overcome a filibuster has proven insurmountable. Republicans hold 53 seats but lack sufficient Democratic support and face internal divisions, with at least one Republican senator opposing cloture. Attempts to attach provisions to the NDAA, a congressional stock-trading measure, or pursue budget reconciliation have not succeeded. As of mid-August 2026, the Senate has recessed without action, leaving little legislative calendar time before the 2026 midterms. Traders view these procedural and partisan barriers, consistent with prior failed iterations, as decisive barriers to enactment this year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย